AFL Round 22 kicks off this Thursday night at Marvel Stadium with a fascinating single-game slate as the Western Bulldogs host North Melbourne. On paper this looks like a straightforward Bulldogs win — they are solid favourites against a North side that has lost their last five. But North Melbourne have shown plenty of competitiveness in recent weeks and from a daily fantasy perspective, will bring plenty of firepower to the table with their style of play that racks up uncontested possessions. The Bulldogs will be desperate for an win as they are sitting one game and percentage out of 6th position, which is still not out of reach and would mean they avoid the wildcard round. North haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet but any chance of playing in a finals game will be a big long shot at this point. The Dogs have made three changes, the headline being Aaron Naughton and Cody Weightman returning to shore up a forward line that was missing genuine marking options last week. Lachie Jaques also comes back in for the dropped Jedd Busslinger. For North, George Wardlaw returns from injury in the midfield, which adds important depth alongside Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke. Riley Hardeman replaces Josh Goater in defence.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 22 Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
AFL Fantasy Round 22 Thursday: Where to Attack?
The matchup data on this slate presents some relatively one-sided options of attack and surpringsly they are against the Bulldogs despite being clear favourites to win the game. The Western Bulldogs have been giving up some of the biggest scores in the league this year to opposition backs, conceding over 10 points per game (most in the AFL) to general defenders and over 8 points a game (also most in the league) to designated kickers. They also give up above average scores to wings and attacking half backs, making the North Melbourne backline stack one of the most optimal plays we have seen this year. What makes this even juicer is how much North love over possessing the ball in their backline!! The Dogs have also been giving up above average points to inside midfielders this year at over 4 points above average. This is a flip from recent years trends as the Bulldogs used to be one of the toughest teams to score against through the middle of the ground.
On the flip side, North have been surprisingly hard to score against, most likely because their play style focuses on possession football. However, the obvious area to attack against them is key forwards where they have been giving up over 1 point per game above league average, and heading into this game as 20 point underdogs makes for a nice play and game script.
Game Script – North Melbourne backs and midfielders, Western Bulldogs forwards
AFL Fantasy Round 22 Thursday – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Cooper Trembath ($9,240) is the value dart on this slate and the ruck matchup is the case as well as the fact that the Dogs have historically had trouble with key forwards. Trembath has been attending over 50% of North Melbourne's centre bounces in 4 of their last 7 games, as they love using him as the main ruck in the centre square due to his jumping ability. This has resulted in three of his last four games topping the 70 point fantasy mark including a 91 point game two weeks ago.
Aaron Naughton ($8,970) will be the main target for the Bulldogs in this matchup with the team solid 20 point favourites. All season North have had big trouble stopping opposition key forwards, and in a fast paced game at Marvel there should be plenty of opportunities for Naughton to get on the score board. He has shown an upside of 123 fantasy points this year and also posted a 85 point game three weeks ago. A streak of down form, including an injury, have resulted in his score being as low as you currently see it, so there is a big opportunity for a slate breaking result here.
AFL Fantasy Round 22 Thursday – Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Caleb Daniel ($13,220) / Colby McKercher ($12,700) are two of the standout mid priced plays on this slate particularly given the scores across all back lines that the Bulldogs are conceding this year. North over possessing the ball out of their backline has resulted in some tremendous scores this year, particularly from Caleb who posted back to back scores over 130 points two months ago. With their shuffling of Luke Parker to the midfield we have seen Colby move to the back line last week, and Caleb and Colby were splitting the kick in duties. You can either stack these two up or make a selection of one to go with a value back for salary relief. Lock and load in this part of the ground.
AFL Fantasy Round 22 Thursday – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Ed Richards ($14,760) is nicely priced as a premium with a could of down scores surrounding his upside ability of 132 points two weeks ago. In a game where the Bulldogs are expected to win, I think his ceiling is in play and he should dominate the younger Roos in the middle.
Harry Sheezel ($18,400) the only question here is whether you can find enough salary to fit him in. Sheezel is posting a ridiculous 122 points per game this season and has logged a six game average of 135 and an upside score of 173. In this matchup where the Bulldogs are giving up above average points to inside midfielders and all roles across the backline, I expect Harry to hit closer to his ceiling game racking up a huge number of uncontested possessions.
Here is our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Fantasy Round 22 Thursday
AFL Betting Markets Round 22 Thursday
Odds: Western Bulldogs ($1.33) vs North Melbourne ($3.37)
Points: 171.5
Line: Western Bulldogs -20.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Thursday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
