Round 20 continues with another four-game Saturday slate featuring several teams fighting to keep their seasons alive as the race for finals intensifies.
The action begins at Marvel Stadium, where Carlton hosts Gold Coast. Both teams have endured difficult stretches, but the match-up should still attract attention from a fantasy perspective, particularly with the Suns showing some positional weaknesses throughout the season.
We then head to the MCG for the latest edition of the rivalry between Hawthorn and Essendon. The Hawks enter as the stronger side, but this shapes as an interesting fantasy contest with Essendon coming off a victory, but still capable of conceding plenty of fantasy points across several areas of the ground.
The third game sees GWS host Sydney at ENGIE Stadium in a crucial Battle of the Bridge. The Swans are firmly in the premiership race, while the Giants need victories to remain in touch for a Wildcard Round slot. Both teams can be restrictive fantasy opponents, so selecting the right players from this match may require a more targeted approach.
The slate concludes back at Marvel Stadium, where the Western Bulldogs take on Richmond. This immediately stands out as one of the most appealing games to attack, with the Tigers continuing to concede significant fantasy production across multiple positions. The Bulldogs should provide several of the slate’s most popular options, although finding the right combination will be important given their deep fantasy rotation.
With four very different match-ups on offer, this looks like another slate where concentrating heavily on the best game environments may prove more profitable than spreading exposure evenly across every contest.
Let’s get into the Round 20 Saturday slate!
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 20 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Blues and Suns haven't displayed a lot of fantasy holes to exploit in recent times, despite their mixed form throughout the season. The Blues main area to target is in the ruck where they are in the top three softest in the league. Note that they’ve swung a change in that position again this week with Marc Pittonet returning. One area the Blues excel is against the designated kicker where they are the tightest in the league.
The Suns are pretty solid across the board but they are particularly tough against general defenders where they are 9 points better than league average over the last ten games.
Potentially a key game to target is the Hawks against the Bombers. The Bombers had a win last week but they are still one of the worst fantasy teams in the league as they give up huge points all over the ground. Target Hawks everywhere, especially as big favourites.
By contrast, the Hawks are particularly stingy to play against with the ruck and wings easily the toughest match up in the league for fantasy plays.
GWS and Sydney clash in another Battle of the Bridge but neither team has any fantasy strengths or weaknesses of note with both teams very close to the league average across all positions. Look to pricing for potential plays.
The biggest fantasy mismatch of the day will see the Bulldogs up against the Tigers. Now on the bottom of the ladder, the Tigers have huge fantasy holes as they give up league worst numbers in the midfield and general defenders as well as top three worst to the designated kicker. The Dogs have plenty of midfield threats to take advantage of this matchup.
The Dogs don’t mind giving up fantasy points themselves. They are in the top three worst in the midfield and wings, while they are also above average to defenders and the designated kicker. Could be fantasy points in both directions in this one, and the weather won’t play a factor under the roof at Marvel.
Game script: Suns rucks, Hawks stacks, Dogs stacks, Tigers mids/wings/defenders
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Bailey Macdonald ($6,440) / Oliver Greeves ($7,260) both look like a couple of reliable budget options for some salary relief on this Saturday slate. Macdonald has gone 57, 71, 45 and 73 over the last month which is some pretty solid scoring at near minimum price. Greeves is a bit more unproven as a rookie but he’s had scores of 51 and 75 in his first two games. Either way you look at it, it’s a great matchup for the Hawks against the Bombers, so both of these guys are in play and a good chance to hit value.
Michael Sellwood ($8,190) / Jedd Busslinger ($7,340) are in play this week if you’re looking at the Bulldogs defenders. There’s no doubt there’s extra fantasy points up for grabs in the Dogs backline for the next few weeks with Bailey Dale out injured. Sellwood has shown some real promise this season and his last three scores of 65, 74 and 68 are a solid output at this price. Busslinger is not normally one I’d have on my fantasy radar but he interestingly took half of the Bulldogs kick-ins last week, which produced six free disposals for him and a boosted score of 71 which was his best for the year. That’s hard to ignore at the price. If they can link up for some extra mark/kicks in the backline without Dale there, then they should score well enough against a Tigers team who leak enormous points to opposition defenders.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jack Ginnivan ($11,870) / Will Day ($12,310) both look a good price for the Hawks in a very favourable match up against the Bombers. Ginnivan was rested in the second half last week after suffering some back soreness but is back to full fitness here. That means his injury-affected score of 38 has brought down his price nicely for this week’s soft matchup against the Bombers. Ginnivan was in fine form with scores of 116, 80 and 100 in the three weeks prior, so expect to see a big bounce back this week. Will Day was rested last week but will be eager to start a big block of form now heading into finals. Expect Day to be at full capacity and he's very capable of landing a big ton.
Lloyd Meek ($12,380) is my first choice of ruckman this Saturday. Meek still has the keys to solo ruck duties at the Hawks with Ned Reeves on the sidelines with injury, and he’s enjoyed that responsibility the last few weeks with scores of 82, 129 and 95. With first choice ruck Nick Bryan out for the Bombers, Meek will have a big advantage against the makeshift ruckmen of Peter Wright ($11,440) or Lachie Blakiston ($6,000). If there’s any rain, that will only help Meek to force stoppages and land some crunching tackles to assist his scoring.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Bailey Williams ($13,310) was back to his best last week for the Dogs in his second week back from a significant injury. Williams looks to be the key beneficiary from the injury to Bailey Dale as he picked up 29 disposals for a fantasy score of 111 last week mostly in defence. While he didn’t contribute to the kick ins, he is the most likely player to fill the distributor role from the back half and his early season form suggests that another ton is likely here, especially up against the weak Tigers who concede massive points in that area of the ground.
Marcus Bontempelli ($16,240) is impossible to look past as the key premium option on this slate. Bontempelli was superb last week, and although he’s not getting huge disposal numbers, he’s hitting the scoreboard with great efficiency with 22 goals for the season. Bont’s season fantasy average is 103.6 with multiple 130+ scores, and that’s the figure we’re looking for against the helpless Tigers who just won’t have anyone capable of going with him at all.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 25th July
Melbourne - Partly sunny, 15 degrees
Sydney - Sunny, 19 degrees
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Carlton ($1.66) vs Gold Coast Suns ($2.23)
Line: Carlton -6.5
Points: 171.5
Hawthorn ($1.03) vs Essendon ($12.50)
Line: Hawthorn -53.5
Points: 170.5
GWS Giants ($2.41) vs Sydney Swans ($1.57)
Line: Sydney -9.5
Points: 184.5
Western Bulldogs ($1.08) vs Richmond ($8.00)
Line: Western Bulldogs -41.5
Points: 172.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
