The Saturday twilight fixture for AFL Round 20 is a lopsided one on paper as the third placed Hawks host the 17th placed Bombers at the MCG. The Hawks will be desperate to bank the four points and continue their match towards the top two, whereas the Bombers will be eyeing off another upset win.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Bombers below, with odds thanks to UniBet!
Hawthorn vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 20
Hawks Soaring Towards the Top Two
Hawthorn heads back to the MCG this Saturday afternoon looking every bit like genuine premiership contenders. Sitting comfortably in third position with a 12-5-1 record, Sam Mitchell has his side playing an incredibly destructive brand of football. They come into this clash on the back of a 70-point demolition job against Richmond last week, showcasing a multi-pronged attack that simply overwhelmed the Tigers. The Hawks have now won four of their last five matches and boast an elite transition game that punishes opposition turnovers with ruthless efficiency. To make things even harder for their opponents, star midfielder Will Day returns to the lineup this week, adding another layer of class to an already dominant engine room.
Bombers Chasing Respect Under Solomon
It has been a completely miserable 2026 campaign for Essendon, but they finally found a glimmer of joy last Sunday. Mired in a brutal 12-game losing streak that saw Brad Scott replaced by interim coach Dean Solomon back in late May, the Bombers shocked everyone by upsetting GWS by three points at Marvel Stadium. Peter Wright slotted the match-winning goal to secure just their second victory of the year and lift them up into 17th place. While their intent and defensive pressure were fantastic against the Giants, bringing that exact same intensity for a second consecutive week against a top-four side is a massive hurdle for a team that has struggled for consistency all season.
Recent History Promises a Shootout
When you look at recent encounters between these two traditional rivals, things have heavily favoured the brown and gold, as you would expect. Hawthorn absolutely dismantled Essendon earlier this season in Round 1, storming home to a massive 62-point victory at the MCG. The Hawks piled on 21 goals in that clash, completely exploiting a fragile Bombers defence that just could not cope with their rapid ball movement. But the most glaring trend in this matchup isn't about who gets the four points, it’s the scoreboard. An incredible nine of the last 10 matches between Hawthorn and Essendon have gone over the total match points line.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
While Essendon deserves massive credit for their spirited upset over GWS last week, facing a flying Hawthorn unit at the MCG is an entirely different beast. The Hawks are ruthlessly hunting a top-two finish and have shown zero mercy against bottom-four sides this year. However, rather than messing around with massive handicap lines, the smartest play is attacking the total points market. With Will Day back in the middle and Hawthorn's forwards firing on all cylinders, expect plenty of goals.
Over 170.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs Essendon Prop Bet
Although a blowout win for the Hawks is the likely outcome, I still think there’s some value in a couple of the Bombers boys in the goal scorer markets. Al Achkar is one who stands out, and his form has to be respected. He’s kicked at least one goal in five of his six career matches so far, including six goals over the last four weeks. Juicy odds still on offer.
Hussien Al Achkar Anytime Goal Scorer
$1.85
Hawthorn vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Hussien Al Achkar Anytime Goal Scorer: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goal Scorer: Although he’s spent a lot of time on a wing this season, Ginnivan is still averaging a goal a game. He’s also averaging 1.6 goals over his last five matches and should get some looks against the Bombers.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goal Scorer: He’s another one who is averaging a goal a game this season and should get on the end of a couple here. He’s kicked seven goals in his last three games against the Bombers.
Hawthorn vs Essendon Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 25th July
Time: 4:15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Hawthorn $1.02 vs Essendon $13
Line: -54.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Essendon
You can watch the Hawks vs Bombers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at UniBet!
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