The final game of a blockbuster NRL Super Saturday is the time-honoured Queensland Derby between the Cowboys and Broncos. Always a thrilling contest, the importance of this game is high for both teams as they push towards a spot in the Top 8. This ensures that fans will benefit most from a top-quality contest and with all eyes on Townsville, Before You Bet is here to assist with a comprehensive look at what is ahead in this match.
Cowboys vs Broncos Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 21
Competitive but falling short
It appeared at one stage in their road match against the Dolphins that they were going to cause an upset, but momentum quickly slipped away from them in the second half in their 36-16 defeat. Starting strongly, they conceded 2 late tries to trail 12-10 at HT. In the end, their lack of possession (44%) and poor completion rate (76%) limited their ability to build pressure when it mattered. Their defence was also an area of concern. They allowed 9.1m per carry, 621 PCM’s, 10 line breaks, and missed 55 tackles. Such a standard will see them quickly detach from the Top 8.
That’s the standard which has been missing
A spirited Broncos team cause a thrilling 14-12 road upset over the Panthers last week to make amends for their earlier season defeat and keep their season on life support. Everything that had been missing from this team had re-emerged as they were dominant, especially in the second half. In the end, they dominated possession (57%), had a great completion rate (89%) and were strong with the ball; they made 729 PCM’s. Their defence was also impressive, missing just 18 tackles. The challenge is now for the Broncos to maintain this standard and continue to build on their confidence.
Stats that matter
- Round 6 saw a 35-31 victory to the Cowboys. This means they have won just 3 of the past 10 matches between these two sides, including their past 3 at home to the Broncos. Their record here is inferior to the visitors (54% vs 67%).
- Despite 3 of the past 5 matches between these two sides decided by 10 points or less, the average margin of victory is 14.4 points. They’ve been high scoring games too, with the average at 57.2 total points.
- The Cowboys are performing better on both sides of the ball this season but only just. They average 23ppg in attack whereas the Broncos manage just 19ppg. Defensively, both are poor, with the Cowboys only slight ahead allowing 25ppg compared to the Broncos 26ppg.
A derby classic ahead
The case for either team winning or losing this team is easy to make. There is not enough time prior to this contest to go through it so, it is best to keep it simple. The Broncos effort last week indicate that they are trending in the right direction; their improve defensive output compliments their direction in attack. It allows them to win the yardage battle in the middle. There is also the possibility that Walters will return at hooker, who will also lift his team.
Tough at home, the Cowboys did the opposite to the Broncos last week. Their lack of defensive structure, especially at the end of each half, is of concern. This suggests fatigue, especially from their key players. They are expected to improve on that effort though; the lure of a Queensland Derby improves the quality of each team which takes the field, regardless of the players on it. This should see the game go down to the wire, just like the first time these two sides met, with the Broncos only emerging as the winners late to cover the line.
Broncos -1.5
$1.90 (1.5 units)
Cowboys vs Broncos Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 48.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Broncos 1-12 – see above for justification.
Leg 3 = Mam to score – he is getting back to his best, highlighted by an improved running game last week. Mam also thrives against the Cowboys, scoring 5 tries from his past 4 games against them.
Cowboys vs Broncos Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 25th July
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Time: 7:35pm (AEST)
Odds: Cowboys $2.15 vs Broncos $1.70
Line: +2.5
Points: 48.5
Where to Watch Cowboys vs Broncos
Watch the Cowboys vs Broncos match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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