Sunday football kicks off at the MCG as Richmond and Hawthorn face off, with the Hawks looking to keep their place in the top four. The Tigers will be out to end a six game losing streak, can they pick up their third win of the season?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Tigers vs Hawks below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Richmond vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 19
Another Tough Day At The Office
Richmond were handed their eighth loss in excess of 40 points last week against Melbourne, with the 46 point defeat painting a familiar picture for the Tigers. The 46 point margin flattered the Tigers, who were beaten in nearly all key facets of the game -82 disposals, -48 marks, -16 disposals and -7 contested possessions. The two most alarming stats were that Richmond conceded a mammoth 22 marks inside 50 and recorded -20 tackles despite Melbourne having a lot more of the ball. The Tigers were unable to stop the Dees in transition, with Melbourne scoring 70 points from chains starting in their defensive half, which is a major concern coming up against the Hawks.
Back On The Winners List
Hawthorn bounced back from their horror performance in Round 17 with a dominant 64 point win over Carlton in wet conditions. Jack Ginnivan produced a masterful performance with 25 disposals and 3 goals, while Connor McDonald (31 disposals) and Will Day (24 disposals, 1 goal) were also excellent. The Hawks belted Carlton at the coalface recording +24 contested possessions, +19 groundball gets, +12 clearances and +12 post clearance groundball gets. It once again showed another layer to Hawthorn’s game, which they consistently show different ways to win games of football, which will hold them in great stead come September.
Recent Head to Head History
Hawthorn has had Richmond’s number over the last two years, winning the last three matches between the two sides. Those wins have come in convincing nature for the Hawks, with margins of 65, 63 and 48 points, so Sam Mitchell’s side will be full of confidence coming into Sunday’s clash.
Tigers or Hawks? Here’s our Richmond vs Hawthorn Tip
It’s clear the Hawks will win this game and will do so in convincing fashion, given the gap in form and quality between the two sides. Richmond have been very poor this season, with 15 losses coming by an average margin of 45 points and six losses above 49 points. Against the current top four, Richmond have an 0-3 record with defeats by margins of 60, 114 and 35 points.
The Hawks midfield will give them a significant advantage around the ball, against a Richmond side that ranks 18th for disposals,16th for contested possessions and 15th for ground ball gets. Hawthorn are one of the best pressure teams in the competition, ranking 4th for intercept possessions and 5th for tackles which has led to them ranking 2nd in the AFL for scores from turnover. Hawthorn will overwhelm a struggling Richmond side en route to a convincing win.
Hawthorn -48.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
Jack Ginnivan is enjoying a career best year and has spent a lot of time pushing up the ground, however across the last three weeks his goal kicking form has come back to the fore. Ginnivan has kicked 3, 2 and 2 goals across his last three games, whilst still recording above 17 disposals in all three games.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals
$2.85
Richmond vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals: As mentioned above, Ginnivan’s ability to hit the scoreboard in recent weeks has been excellent with 3 consecutive games of 2+ goals.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Newcombe was quiet by his standards last week, however the Hawks skipper has been in excellent form. Newcombe averaged 30 disposals per game over the five previous games leading into Round 18, with five consecutive 25+ disposal performances. Expect a bounce back from Newcombe against an inexperienced midfield.
Josh Ward 22+ Disposals: Since Round 10, Josh Ward has produced the best football of his career and his beginning to become one of Hawthorn’s most reliable players. Across his last eight games, Ward has reached the 22 disposal mark seven times, averaging 23 disposals per game across that timespan.
Richmond vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 19th July
Time: 1:10pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Richmond $10 vs Hawthorn $1.05
Line: Hawthorn -48.5
Points: 174.5
Where to Watch Richmond vs Hawthorn
You can watch Tigers vs Hawks live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
