Sunday afternoon football heads to Marvel Stadium as two sides desperately searching for momentum lock horns in an intriguing Round 17 clash. St Kilda remain in the finals conversation despite dropping four of their last five matches, while Essendon continue to battle through a difficult season but have shown signs of improvement with several key players returning to the line-up.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Saints below, with odds thanks to CrownBet!
Essendon vs St Kilda Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 17
Bombers Finding Fight but Lacking Results
Essendon have endured a difficult campaign but there have been positive signs in recent weeks as key players return and younger talent continues to develop. The Bombers have been far more competitive than their record suggests and pushed several sides deep into the fourth quarter over the past month.
Nate Caddy remains the focal point inside 50, kicking multiple goals in three of his past five matches, while Zach Merrett continues to carry a heavy load with three 30+ disposal games across his last five outings. The Bombers are slowly getting healthier and look much more organised structurally than they did earlier in the season.
Playing under the roof at Marvel should also suit their attacking style. Essendon have shown a willingness to move the ball quickly when given the opportunity, and with St Kilda missing several important defensive pieces, there should be scoring opportunities available throughout the afternoon.
Saints Searching for Consistency
St Kilda enter Round 17 having lost four of their last five matches, with injuries continuing to wreak havoc on Ross Lyon's best 23. Jack Sinclair's calf injury, Tom De Koning's absence and concerns surrounding Rowan Marshall have placed enormous pressure on the Saints' depth heading into a crucial stage of the season.
Despite those setbacks, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continues to produce elite football and remains one of the competition's premier ball users. Jack Higgins has provided plenty of spark around goal, while Callum Wilkie has once again been a pillar in defence despite the constant changes around him.
The return of Mattaes Phillipou adds another interesting dynamic to the side after his dominant VFL performance last weekend. If the Saints can get their midfield mix right, they still possess enough talent to remain dangerous against any opposition on their day.
What to Expect?
The total looks a little too low given the personnel available and the likely style of game under the roof at Marvel Stadium. Essendon have shown far more attacking intent in recent weeks, while St Kilda still possess plenty of firepower despite their injury concerns.
Both teams have vulnerabilities defensively at the moment, and the fast conditions at Marvel should allow for quick ball movement and plenty of scoring opportunities. Expect an open contest with momentum swings throughout the afternoon, making the over 179.5 points the standout play.
Over 179.5 Points
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Essendon vs St Kilda Prop Bet
Phillipou returns to the senior side after making an enormous statement in the VFL, collecting 42 disposals in a dominant performance last weekend. After struggling to consistently impact games as a forward earlier in the season, there is every chance Ross Lyon gives him a much heavier midfield workload this time around. If that happens, the 20+ line looks extremely achievable and represents excellent value.
Phillipou 20+ Disposals
$3.20
Essendon vs St Kilda Same Game Multi
Jack Higgins 2+ Goals | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 30+ Disposals | Callum Wilkie 20+ Disposals
Jack Higgins continues to be one of the Saints' most reliable avenues to goal and should benefit from the fast conditions at Marvel. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has elevated his game to another level in 2026 and is more than capable of clearing 30 disposals when the Saints look to control possession through half-back. Callum Wilkie rounds out the multi as a dependable accumulator in defence, consistently finding plenty of the football as St Kilda's primary interceptor and distributor.
Essendon vs St Kilda Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 5 July
Time: 3.15pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon ($4.45) vs St Kilda ($1.21)
Line: -28.5
Points: 179.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs St Kilda
You can watch the Bombers vs Saints live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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