Saturday football kicks off at Marvel Stadium as the reigning premiers take on the struggling Bombers. Will Brisbane continue their great form, or will Essendon cause a major boilover? We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Lions below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Essendon vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 8
Back To Where They Started
After putting together some solid football across Rounds 5 and 6, Essendon were given a harsh reality check in a 77 point hiding on Anzac Day. The second half by the Bombers was a complete embarrassment, conceding 101 points in a half, against a Collingwood side that hadn’t kicked over 100 points in a game since Round 17 2025. Essendon were smashed at the coalface, beaten in contested possessions by 33, centre clearances by 11, which led to them losing the inside 50’s by 26. A major concern for Essendon was their lack of pressure, which looked like the Bombers of the first two weeks of the season, conceding 134 marks. Coming up against the best uncontested marking team in the comp, they have to be much better in this area on Saturday.
Hitting Their Straps
After starting the season 0-2, Brisbane have put together an excellent five week stretch winning four of their last five games. They flexed their muscle against Adelaide last week, playing the typical Brisbane brand of football in their 52 point win. The Lions were +44 for disposals, +34 for marks, +22 for contested possessions, +21 for inside 50’s and +15 for clearances. Brisbane rank 1st in the competition for marks and kicks, and the blueprint for their ability to control games has come to the fore over the last five weeks. Their scoring has been excellent too, averaging 102 points per game - the fourth most in the AFL.
Recent Head to Head History
The Lions have had the wood over Essendon since 2020, winning six of their last seven games against Essendon. Not only have they won plenty of games against the Bombers, but they’ve done it in convincing fashion. Those six wins for Brisbane have come by an average margin of 37 points.
Bombers or Lions? Here’s our Essendon vs Brisbane Tip
This isn’t a case of if Brisbane wins, but by how much. -42.5 is a generous line for the best team in the competition coming up against a side with one win from seven games. Essendon have had three losses by above 60 points, and have conceded an average of 111 points per game, the third most in the AFL. The Bombers are the worst team in the league at conceding marks, and coming up against the best team at keeping the ball off opposition the Lions are going to make them look sub par. Brisbane will play keepings off and expose a terrible Essendon defence, en route to a massive win.
Brisbane -42.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Essendon vs Brisbane Prop Bet
Essendon made some interesting moves at selection, managing Darcy Parish and dropping Elijah Tsatas. Parish has been Essendon’s number one CBA player averaging 66% CBAs, while Elijah Tastas has averaged 57% CBAs since coming into the team in Round 5. Jye Caldwell attended a season low 25 centre bounces last week, which saw him record a season low 16 disposals. With Parish and Tsatas out, expect Caldwell to spend a lot more time on ball, with his last game against the Lions producing 30 disposals.
Jye Caldwell 25+ Disposals
$2.45
Essendon vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Jye Caldwell 25+ Disposals: As listed above, Caldwell picked up 30 disposals in his last game against Brisbane and should get plenty of time around the ball with no Parish and Tsatas in the team.
Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals: The two time Brownlow medalist is putting together a serious season averaging 31.1 disposals per game, ranked 5th in the AFL. Neale has picked up 42, 31 and 30 disposals in his last three games, and has dominated against Essendon since joining the Lions. Since 2019, Neale has averaged 34 disposals per game against the Bombers and has reached the 30+ mark in six of eight games against Essendon.
Archie Roberts 30+ Disposals: Roberts is having a major breakout campaign in 2026, averaging 32.1 disposals per game, the third most in the AFL. Roberts' last four games have produced returns of 42, 33, 42 and 37 disposals, and has quickly become one of Essendon’s best players. Roberts has taken 23 kick ins over his last five games and played on from all 23, a crucial stat when looking at disposal markets for defenders.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at Dabble
Essendon vs Brisbane Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 2nd May
Time: 12:35pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $7 vs Brisbane $1.09
Line: Brisbane -42.5
Points: 183.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Brisbane
You can watch the Bombers vs Lions live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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