Round 1 of the 2026 NRL season wraps up at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday night as the Dolphins host the Rabbitohs, and from a betting perspective this shapes as one of the more intriguing matchups of the opening weekend. Early season NRL betting markets can be difficult to price accurately, with teams still finding rhythm, combinations adjusting, and new roles emerging across the competition.
For punters, this game presents a fascinating contrast in styles. The Dolphins enter the season still chasing the club’s first finals appearance and possess plenty of attacking weapons across the park, while South Sydney arrive looking to push back into finals contention after a season built around discipline and ball control.
Another factor bettors will be watching closely is the weather. Brisbane has experienced heavy rainfall across the weekend and conditions at Suncorp Stadium are expected to be wet and humid by kick-off. When games are played in these conditions, handling, completion rates and territory often become far more important than attacking flair, and that dynamic could prove crucial in determining the outcome. We bring you our preview and best bets below!
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 1
Rabbitohs Look to Get Back Into Finals Contention
South Sydney enters the 2026 season looking to push back into the finals after a 2025 campaign that showed improvement with the return of Wayne Bennett, but ultimately fell short of September football. One of the biggest positives from last season was the Rabbitohs’ discipline with the football. Across the full season, South Sydney finished second in the NRL for completion percentage, a statistic that highlights the structured and patient style they developed as the year progressed.
That ability to hold possession helped stabilise the team during the back half of the season, with the Rabbitohs significantly reducing the handling errors that had hurt them earlier in the year. Their spine continues to provide plenty of upside, with Cody Walker’s creativity still the key attacking spark, while Jye Gray emerged as one of the competition’s best yardage fullbacks, consistently producing huge running metres to start sets. His continued improvement was enough to shift Latrell Mitchell to the centres full-time.
Through the middle, players like Keon Koloamatangi and Cam Murray provide the work rate and defensive reliability that allow South Sydney to maintain high completion numbers and build pressure through field position. Heading into 2026, the Rabbitohs profile as a side comfortable playing controlled, disciplined football, a style that can become even more valuable when conditions deteriorate. With the addition of David Fifita, their left edge becomes even more deadly this year too.
Dolphins Continue Push Towards First Finals Appearance
The Dolphins continue their push towards the club’s first finals appearance after another season in 2025 that showed plenty of promise but also highlighted areas that still need improvement. At their best, the Dolphins were capable of scoring quickly and breaking games open through speed and creativity, yet consistency proved difficult as errors and defensive lapses halted momentum throughout the year.
Their attacking weapons remain among the most dangerous in the NRL. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continues to be a constant threat around the ruck with his speed and support play, while Herbie Farnworth provides one of the most powerful running centres in the competition. The forward pack sees turnover, with the retirements of Kenny Bromwich and Mark Nicholls, and the loss of Josh Kerr, offset by the edition of Morgan Knowles coming over from England. They do get Tom Flegler back, who missed basically two full seasons with nerve damage to his shoulder.
The challenge for the Dolphins in this matchup is whether they can adapt their natural attacking instincts if conditions force the game into a slower grind. When the Dolphins are able to play with tempo and quick ruck speed, they are extremely dangerous, but greasy conditions can often limit that style and place far greater pressure on ball security and patience.
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Recent History (Last 4 Meetings)
These sides have traded punches across their brief history since the Dolphins entered the NRL, with several high-scoring encounters highlighting the attacking strengths of both teams.
2025 Round 17: Dolphins def Rabbitohs 50–28
2025 Round 1: Rabbitohs def Dolphins 16–14
2024 Round 19: Dolphins def Rabbitohs 36-28
2023 Round 7: Rabbitohs def Dolphins 36-14
Rabbitohs Superior Handling to Prove Difference
The biggest factor likely to decide this contest is handling in difficult conditions. Heavy rain has fallen across Brisbane throughout the weekend, with forecasts suggesting 15–90mm of rain in the region and humid conditions expected to continue into Sunday night. Suncorp Stadium already showed signs of how slippery the surface could become, even without rain, when the Panthers and Broncos clashed there on Friday night, with both teams struggling to control the football and combining for 32 errors.
When games are played in these types of conditions, attacking shape often becomes secondary. Instead, the teams that win are usually the ones who complete their sets, kick long and force the opposition to defend repeatedly. That profile strongly favours South Sydney.
Finishing second in the NRL for completion percentage in 2025, the Rabbitohs built their season around disciplined, patient football. They don’t need expansive attacking shapes to generate pressure, simply holding the football and building territory can often be enough to control a match.
The Dolphins certainly have the attacking talent to break the game open, but those weapons rely on clean ball and quick ruck speed. If the football becomes slippery and the game slows into a grinding contest, South Sydney’s discipline with the ball could become the decisive factor.
If conditions play out as expected, the Rabbitohs’ ability to minimise errors and control possession should give them the edge in what shapes as a tight Round 1 contest.
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Player Prop Bet
The big offseason signing for the Rabbitohs, David Fifita, should line up on the Rabbitohs’ insanely dangerous left edge. With defences needing to decide between Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell, and David Fifita in defence, the big man could be high in the try scoring lists this season.
David Fifita (1+ try)
$4.10 (1 Unit)
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Rabbitohs ML – See Best Bet
Leg 2: D Fifita (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: H Farnworth (1+ try) – Herbie was electric last season, and in slippery conditions will be an absolute nightmare to defend.
SGM Odds: $12.00 at Bet365
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 8th March
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Time: 4:05pm AEDT
Weather: Rain, 26 degrees
Odds: Dolphins ($1.82) vs Rabbitohs ($2.00)
Line: Dolphins (-1.5)
Points: 43.5
Where to Watch Dolphins vs Rabbitohs
Watch the Dolphins vs Rabbitohs match live on Channel 9 as well as ad free on Kayo Sports.
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