For Australia, this is a must-win. After the shock loss to Zimbabwe, there’s no more room for slip-ups. Another defeat and their Super Eight hopes are hanging by a mathematical thread. They head to Pallekele knowing the equation is simple now: win, or risk going home early.
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T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Australia Preview & Betting Tips
Pallekele, Tuesday 17th February, 12:30am AEDT
Sri Lanka
Squad: Dasun Shanaka (c), Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis, Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka, Janith Liyanage, Pavan Rathnayake, Dushan Hemantha, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Dushmantha Chameera, Matheesha Pathirana, Pramod Madushan.
Sri Lanka have absorbed a major blow with Wanindu Hasaranga ruled out, but they have not skipped a beat. Maheesh Theekshana has been outstanding, taking 2-11 against Oman and 3-23 against Ireland, while Dunith Wellalage has quietly strangled opponents at under six an over. Their bowling unit looks balanced, and in home conditions they understand exactly how to build pressure.
With the bat, Kusal Mendis has been the standout, following a composed 56 not out with a fluent 61. The middle order has clicked, and Shanaka’s return to the captaincy has brought clarity. Pallekele tends to be the highest-scoring T20 ground in Sri Lanka, so they may lean into pace a little more here, but confidence is flowing through this group. They know a win here all but secures progression.
Australia
Squad: Mitch Marsh (c), Xavier Bartlett, Cooper Connolly, Tim David, Ben Dwarshuis, Cameron Green, Nathan Ellis, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Renshaw, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa. Travelling reserves: Sean Abbott, Steve Smith.
Australia’s campaign has been disrupted from the outset. Injuries to Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood, plus Mitchell Starc’s retirement from T20Is, have stripped the attack of its usual intimidation factor. Mitch Marsh remains under an injury cloud, and while Steve Smith has joined the squad, he cannot play unless officially added to the 15. The bowling has looked unsettled, and against Zimbabwe they appeared flat and short of ideas at key moments.
That said, the batting still carries serious punch. Travis Head, Glenn Maxwell, Cameron Green and Tim David can dismantle attacks in a matter of overs, and Marcus Stoinis has been cleared after a nasty blow to the hand. Adam Zampa’s fitness is crucial on sub-continental surfaces, and if Australia are to rebound, it will likely be built around disciplined middle-overs spin and smarter pacing with the bat. They cannot afford another collapse or another loose spell.
Match Prediction
Australia’s path is simple on paper but brutal in reality. Win their last two games and they give themselves a chance. Lose here and they are relying heavily on other results. The problem is that they have not looked cohesive enough to trust outright, especially with selection uncertainty and injury management clouding their best XI.
Sri Lanka, by contrast, look settled and comfortable in their own conditions. Their spin has controlled games, their middle order has delivered under pressure, and they are feeding off momentum. Unless Australia produce their most complete performance of the tournament so far, it’s hard to back them with confidence. In these conditions, with qualification on the line, Sri Lanka look slightly better balanced and better prepared for the occasion.
Player Prop
With Australia’s top order struggling badly against spin on these slower decks, this shapes as a Maxwell game. He’s comfortably one of the best players of spin in the squad, with the sweep, reverse and footwork to disrupt Sri Lanka’s middle-overs choke, and he consistently strikes above 150 against spin in T20 cricket. If Theekshana and Wellalage control the early phases again, Maxwell is the one most equipped to counterpunch. We like this play regardless of whether Australia win or lose - his role and match-up profile should give him every chance to cash in.
Maxwell Over 15.5 Runs
$1.90
