Week 2 of the 2025 AFLW Finals are here which means it’s time for a pair of semi’s. Both fixtures will take place on Saturday at IKON Park, with the first being Melbourne vs Adelaide, while the second will see Hawthorn take on Carlton.
Check out our best bets for Week 2 of the AFLW finals below and if you’re keen to follow our tips, then consider joining Bet Right!
2025 AFLW Finals Week 2 Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Adelaide
Saturday 1:05pm AEDT, IKON Park
Melbourne enter this AFLW semi-final following a 13-point qualifying-final loss to the Lions, a result that exposed some of the inconsistency that has crept into their game late in the season. Their 9–3 home-and-away record remains impressive, though it was aided by a softer draw after finishing lower on the ladder last year. At their best, the Demons still play a powerful, territory-dominant brand built on contested strength and a disciplined defensive structure. But their challenge has been sustaining pressure for four quarters, with momentum swings proving costly. In a knockout setting, composure and clarity in those periods become absolutely critical.
Adelaide, by contrast, arrive full of confidence after dismantling the Saints by 44 points in last week’s elimination final. Their 7–5 home-and-away campaign came against a significantly tougher draw, leaving them battle-hardened and well-tuned to the demands of finals football. The Crows’ system continues to thrive on turnover pressure, organised defence, and sharp transition from half-back, where they generate some of their most dangerous scoring chains. Their ability to surge late in quarters and absorb opposition momentum has been a defining strength all season.
These teams did not meet during the 2025 home-and-away season, adding intrigue to a match-up already shaped by contrasting styles. Their most recent meeting came last year, when Melbourne escaped with a two-point victory—a reminder of how tight this rivalry can be. While the Demons deserve their favouritism, Adelaide’s superior recent form, stronger overall fixture, and capacity to maintain defensive intensity deep into games make this far from a straightforward assignment. With those factors in mind, the Crows look well positioned to cover the +10.5 spread in what should be a tense and fiercely contested semi-final.
Adelaide +10.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs Carlton
Saturday 7:15pm AEDT, IKON Park
Hawthorn head into this AFLW semi-final looking to reset quickly after last week’s sobering 39-point qualifying-final loss to the powerhouse Kangaroos. Despite that result, the Hawks’ 9–3 home-and-away record and fourth-place finish underline how strong their overall season has been. Their system is built on ferocious pressure around the contest, disciplined defensive structure, and a willingness to take territory whenever possible. When they control field position and force repeat stoppages in their forward half, Hawthorn become extremely difficult to shift. The key now is responding to last week’s defeat with urgency and tightening the defensive lapses that allowed North Melbourne to dictate terms.
Carlton, meanwhile, arrive with momentum after dismantling the Eagles by 41 points in their elimination final. An 8–4 home-and-away campaign and fifth-place finish reflect a side that has become more balanced, dependable, and consistent across the season. The Blues’ strength lies in their ability to own the contest, protect the corridor, and score heavily off turnover. When they can apply sustained pressure and surge forward from half-back, they generate the kind of repeat inside-50 opportunities that make them so dangerous. Their confidence will be high after last week’s commanding performance.
This match-up comes with meaningful recent history. Hawthorn defeated Carlton by eight points earlier this season and by 38 in their meeting last year, giving the Hawks both tactical confidence and proof that their style matches up well. With their pressure profile, contested strength, and proven ability to disrupt the Blues’ ball movement, Hawthorn look every bit a live underdog. At the current price of $2.40, the Hawks present strong value to get the win on Saturday in what should be a tight, physical contest.
Hawthorn to Win
$2.40 (2.5 Units)
