ANZAC Day brings us three high quality matchups, and we continue with game 2 in New Zealand, as the Warriors take their home game against the Knights to Christchurch. The Warriors have a tremendous opportunity to keep their spot inside the top 4, as they take on a Knights’ team bereft of flair in attack, scoring just 10 points per game. With the Wahs unbeaten on home soil this season, things could be getting worse for the Knights, with rock bottom coming at them fast.
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New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Location: Apollo Projects Stadium – Christchurch
Date: Friday, 25th April
Time: 6:05pm AEST
Odds: Warriors ($1.32) vs Knights ($3.45)
Line: Warriors -8.5
Points: 44.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Warriors took on the Broncos in Auckland last week in trying conditions, and managed the game brilliantly, allowing only 1288 metres to the Broncos. After leading 18-6 after 65 minutes (4 tries to 1), the Warriors allowed the Broncos back into the contest, as the road team managed two tries in 7 minutes to force the game to Golden Point. Amazingly, Reece Walsh kicked the Golden Point restart out on the full, allowing Luke Metcalf to calmly slot a penalty goal from half way for the win.
The Knights took on the Sharks at home last week and were utterly dominated by the away side. The Sharks led 28-4 with under 10 minutes remaining, before two Knights’ garbage time tries got the Knights within 20. It wasn’t enough, and Coach Adam O’Brien’s seat must be burning right now.
These teams met twice last season, with the Warriors hosting the Knights in round 4 in Auckland. The Warriors closed 9.5-point favourites and won rather comfortably despite the 20-12 scoreline. They met again in round 9 in Newcastle, with the Warriors this time closing as 4.5-point favourites. The Knights completely shut the Warriors down, winning 14-8 at home, conceding only one line-break all game.
Looking forward to this game, and the Warriors were 10.5-point favourites on the lookahead, with punters siding with the Knights early in the week, as they have moved in two points to +8.5. I make the spread Warriors -8.5, so am smack on this number. I’d lean towards the Warriors, given how poor the Knights have been, but I’ll look towards the total for my bet here.
The total opened 44.5, and it hasn’t moved off this number yet. Whilst the Knights did go over last week and we lost, I’m going to double down here on the under, and I am more confident this time. It’s going to be a cool night in Christchurch, and these Friday night games in New Zealand often lend themselves to low scoring affairs. The Warriors will want to do what they do best, complete sets and win the arm wrestle, and they should do that against a weak Knights team. Under is the play, with my fair total starting with a 3.
Under 44.5 total points
$1.92 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Warriors ML – Warriors will get the win at home on ANZAC day, no doubt about it.
Leg 2: B Best (1+ try) – The rampaging Knights’ centre hasn’t scored since round 3, but I like his chances this week against the weaker left edge of the Warriors.
Leg 3: L Halasima (1+ try) – Dropped to the bench, but that doesn’t faze me. This kid is legit close to the line, and whilst he will likely be running at the stingier left-sided Knights’ defence, this kid can score against anyone.
SGM Odds: $17 at BoomBet
