The playoffs have finally arrived, and after some pretty average games from teams lacking motivation in week 18, we get to the point of the season where it’s lose, and you go home. We kick things off in Wild Card week with an NFC West showdown, when the 7th seeded Seattle Seahawks (9-8) head to the Bay area to take on the 2nd seeded San Francisco 49ers (13-4). We follow that up with two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, when the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) head to Florida to take on the AFC Champions, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last week we went 1 from 2 in our best bets, bringing our regular season record to 31-29-1 (+2.82u). It’s always nice to be in profit for the season in the NFL! Let’s see if we can’t win some more money in the playoffs.
Ben Bridge brings us his NFL betting tips for Sunday's action below!
NFL 2022-23: Wild Card Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium, Sunday 8:30am AEDT
These teams met less than a month ago in Seattle, in what was Brock Purdy’s first career start on the road. After beating the Buccaneers comfortably at home, the week prior, the 49ers rating was pumped back up as a result, however they still only closed a 3-point favourite in Seattle. Fast forward a month, and the 49ers are now laying 9.5/10 to the Seahawks. We actually previewed this matchup, where I distinctly recall predicting a multi-turnover performance from Brock Purdy. Well, it's been another 4 weeks, and the Brock Purdy train has shown no signs of slowing down.
Neither team appears to have any relevant injury news, at least anything different from last week, with both teams listing several starters as ‘Questionable’, however all are expected to go and are more than likely getting some extra rest before the playoffs.
I like a couple of bets in this matchup. Rookie quarterbacks in their first playoff game are notoriously poor, and whilst this will also be Geno Smith’s first playoff start, he has a decided advantage over Brock Purdy when it comes to experience. I don’t care. I learnt my lesson early that Brock Purdy is different. Well, more like the scheme Kyle Shanahan is running is different. Purdy has a solid offensive line and arguably the best group of weapons of any team in the NFL. The 49ers are better everywhere, and Wild Card week is well known for favourites to blowout inferior opponents. The Seahawks are very lucky to be in the playoffs, and their season ends in week 1 of the playoffs.
Aside from the 49ers to cover, I love the Seahawks team total under. This 49ers defence is arguably the number 1 unit in football, and in wet and hostile conditions with a quarterback making his playoff debut, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring 17.
Alternate Bet:
Seattle Seahawks (team total) under 16.5 - $1.85 @ TAB (1.5u)
San Francisco 49ers (-9)
$1.91 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Field, Sunday 12:15pm AEDT
The Chargers and Jaguars meet for the second time this season, after going head-to-head back in week 3 in Los Angeles. The Chargers were 6.5-point favourites in that one, however the story in the lead up was the injury Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert suffered in the week 2 loss to the Chiefs. There was talk during the week that Herbert would not play, however he overcame the injury to take his place under center. It didn’t matter, as the Jaguars destroyed the Chargers 38-10. The Jags won the turnover battle 2-0, and never looked like losing.
Fast forward 3 ½ months, and the teams now face off in the Wild Card round. For two of the best young quarterbacks in the league, it will be a debut in the NFL playoffs, however it isn’t the first big game either have been apart of. In 2020, Trevor Lawrence led the Clemson Tigers to the National Championship in his Freshman year, winning the MVP along the way. A year later, Lawrence and the Tigers again made the National Championship game, this time losing out to the Joe Burrow-led LSU Tigers. The same year Lawrence was winning the National Title, Herbert led his Oregon Ducks to victory at the Rose Bowl, rushing for 3 touchdowns in an MVP performance. So, both guys know how to play in the big moment.
In terms of injury news, the Chargers are sweating on the availability of stud receiver Mike Williams, after he suffered a back injury in week 18. Williams has a huge influence on the passing game, and if they are without Williams, it will be a substantial loss. For the Jags, they have several players banged up and on the injury report, however, are not believed to be in much doubt to take the field.
This game opened as Chargers 1-point favourites or a pick, but I see this as the wrong team favoured. I’ve got the teams as almost identical in my power ratings, and with a slight home field advantage for the Jags, I had to take them. Money has continued coming in on the Chargers, so I could be wrong, but I’ll stick with my selection and take the Jags on the moneyline.
One more note, I believe if Mike Williams is a confirmed starter, this number may get to Chargers -3. If this ever happens, Jags +3 is an instant 3u selection for me.
Jacksonville Jaguars
$2.26 (1.5 Units)
