Round 12 in NBL25 will see seven games play out across four days (Thursday-Sunday), beginning with a double-header on Thursday night. We had another solid round with our tips last weekend where we finished +1.7 Units, taking us to +14.18 Units for the season. We aim to bring you more great winners in Round 12 as we present our best bets for each game below!
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NBL25 Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Breakers vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Thursday 5:30pm AEDT, Eventfinda Stadium
Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT, Brisbane Entertainment Centre
The Bullets recorded one of their best wins in recent history last weekend when they took down United on their home floor by eight points. It was an old-fashioned shootout with the teams combining for 236 points in an entertaining clash. The Bullets have now won back-to-back games for just the second time this season and enter Round 12 in eighth spot on the ladder but only one win outside the top six.
The Phoenix enjoyed more success under Coach King last weekend when they defeated the Snakes by five points in a see-sawing battle. The Phoenix have now won four in a row on their home floor but will hit the road on Thursday night where they’ve lost their past two. The Phoenix come into this round as one of the hottest teams in the competition on the back of seven wins in their last 10, and have surged into sixth spot in the standings.
The Bullets enjoyed the fast-paced game against United last weekend but I expect the Phoenix to try and make this more of a grit and grind type of game. They’ve ranked at the top of the league in defensive since King took over and have only given up 100 points once this season. The total points line for this one has been set extremely high and I’d be surprised if the unders doesn’t salute in what should be a great tactical battle.
Under 187.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks
Friday 7:30pm AEDT, John Cain Arena
Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers
Saturday 5:30pm AEDT, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
The 36ers fought hard last start against the Wildcats but didn’t have enough weaponry to compete with a scorching hot Bryce Cotton. They went down by 10 points in that contest and are now on a four-game losing streak which has seen them fall to second last on the ladder. The good news is Montrezl Harrell has now served his three-game suspension and will make his return on Saturday night.
The Breakers began the season smartly with seven wins from their first 10 games but it’s all gone downhill from there. They enter Saturday night’s game on a five-game losing streak, with all of those losses coming by double-figure margins. Coach Kop mixed up his starting lineup last outing against the JackJumpers looking for some sort of spark, but he certainly didn’t get the results he was after.
Both of these clubs come into this clash in desperate need of a win, but it’s the 36ers who clearly have the greater upside. Harrell will be extremely motivated to make a statement in his return game, and that spells danger for the Breakers who are the worst paint-protecting team in the competition. I expect another double-digit loss for the Breakers here.
36ers -7.5
$1.95 (1 Unit)
Cairns Taipans vs Perth Wildcats
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT, Cairns Convention Centre
The Snakes suffered their 11th straight loss when they fell to the Phoenix in Round 11, which comes after they started the season 3-1. They were in the game right until the final whistle, which has been a consistent theme during this losing run. The good news for the Snakes is they now return home after playing five of their past eight on the road, and two of their three wins have come in Cairns this season.
The Wildcats continue to ride the hot hand of their superstar in Bryce Cotton who has put up 59, 40, and 49 points across his last three games. His most recent scoring burst helped guide the Wildcats to a 10-point road win against the 36ers, making it three wins from their past four games. In injury news, Kristian Doolittle will miss this round after playing banged up last weekend.
The Snakes are on an historic losing run right now but I still don’t think they’re playing as bad as what their record suggests. Each of their last four and seven of their 11 losses during this stretch have been by single figure margins, which shows they aren’t too far away from enjoying some success. And at home where they’ve played much better this campaign, I like them to cover the big spread.
Taipans +7.5
$1.97 (2 Units)
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United
Sunday 2:30pm AEDT, John Cain Arena
The Phoenix led for the majority of their game against the Bullets on Thursday night but couldn’t close the deal as they eventually fell by eight points. That loss made it three in a row on the road, but the good news is they now return back to Melbourne where they’ve won four in a row. In injury news, Derrick Walton Jr is a game-time decision as he’s currently dealing with illness.
United are also coming into this game having lost their opening game in Round 12. They played host to the Hawks on Friday night but were outgunned by 13 points. United have now suffered consecutive defeats for the first time this season and coughed up top spot on the ladder as a result. Chris Goulding remains on the sidelines with a calf injury, while Marcus Lee is a game-time decision.
The Phoenix were finally able to get the better of United in their recent Throwdown after years of consecutive L’s. Their Round 5 Throwdown win was what sparked their resurgence as they’ve won seven of 11 since starting the season 0-5. The Phoenix are in a great position to make it 2/2 against United considering they’re still without their most important player in Goulding, and I see them as genuine value in the H2H market here.
Phoenix to Win
$2.40 (1 Unit)
Sydney Kings vs Brisbane Bullets
Sunday 4:30pm AEDT, Qudos Bank Arena
The Kings were easy winners in their last outing against the struggling Breakers, defeating them in New Zealand by 15 points. That was the fourth straight road game for the Kings (2-2) and they now return home to Qudos Bank Arena for Sunday’s clash. The Kings won their past two games at QBA and are 3-2 there for the season, while they currently sit in third spot on the ladder.
The Bullets are on a heater right now with three wins on the spin and four from their past five. They’ve been shooting it at an extremely high level during this stretch, and have put up an average of 106.8 points across their past five. The Bullets have won three in a row at home but now head on the road where they have struggled a touch this season (3-4), although certainly not last time where they upset United by eight points in Melbourne.
The Kings have the superior talent and are well rested ahead of this game, so it makes sense for them to start as favourites on their home deck. However, the Bullets are the form team of the competition and you would be brave to bet against them right now. I’m keen to continue to ride their wave of momentum and to back them in to at least keep this one close.
Bullets +6.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
