Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Friday night racing at Moonee Valley on September 28th!
It’s Group 1 Moir Stakes night and the meeting kicks off a huge weekend of sporting action across Australia!
We have eight races on a Good track with the rail in the True position and we’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 3 #3 Trap For Fools
Best Value: Race 6 #4 Zizzis
Tough race to start with. The favourite is (2) Sunset Watch at $2.80, who returns to racing after a 21-week spell. He looked good in his debut campaign, posting two wins from four starts, including a dominant victory at Caulfield over 1100m. Although those victories appear a solid grounding for a race like this, the form out of those races has proved to be pretty weak, so it’s hard to get confident. We also don’t know how he will return as a three-year-old. He’s probably the one they all have to beat but he’s no moral. (10) Shamino was well backed first up but was defeated by what could be a decent horse in Fifth Amendment. Shamino should roll forward and find a position on speed, which is always beneficial at the Valley. Gets the winkers on first time, should be improved second up and could be a value chance at $12. The runner I’m terrified of is (7) Ringerdingding who has his first start for DK Weir. He’s been racing in some of the top races up in Sydney and the stable change doesn’t get much bigger. The blinkers come off, he’s drawn well in barrier 5 and we’ve seen Weir improve these types of horses out of sight in the past. (8) Walk The Talk and (11) Octane both come off solid victories at Wangaratta on the same day. Walk The Talk ran a significantly quicker time on the day.
They will have a tough time running down (1) I Am A Star here after her victory in the G2 Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington last time out. She’s got a great record at this track and distance and gets in very well at the weights as a Group 1 winner. I’d be surprised if they didn’t lead from barrier 3 here and if she does find the front they probably won’t catch her. (5) Sheezdashing flashed home behind I Am A Star in the Let’s Elope and she was only first up from a spell so should have plenty of improvement left in her. Her racing pattern makes it tough to say she’ll turn the tables here and she does just seem to always find one or two better. From that barrier she’ll be coming from the back of the field. (4) Mrs Gardenia can either kick up on the rail or take a sit on the back of I Am A Star from barrier 1. She sat wide without cover in the Let’s Elope last start and should be ready to peak third up here. Damian Lane takes the ride on stablemate (2) Kenedna, who is certainly not hopeless second up at big odds.
Really does look a lovely race for (3) Trap For Fools who has won his past two starts over this track and distance. Once he finds the front he’s awfully hard to get past and the map has him getting the lead pretty comfortably here. This is the ideal course for him and he’ll take plenty of beating once again. (5) Sir Isaac Newton was sound first up behind Furrion and has a good second up record. It would be no surprise to see him roll forward today. (1) Harlem drops back from Group 1 company and comes into this third up. His record third up is reasonable and he recorded the equal-best final 600m last start. Can sit further forward from barrier 2 and isn’t without a chance.
The speed map is a bit ugly but with even luck surely (1) You’ve Been Had is too good for this lot. He’s been brought undone by wide barriers at this track before but they rode him perfectly last start, opting to sit wide on the speed and just letting his class get him over the line. I suspect they’ll use similar tactics again tonight so to avoid getting too far back and leaving his run too late. He’s a winner of five from eight and there really doesn’t look to be a great deal to beat in this field. (4) Goldfinch has been met with plenty of early support after a solid victory first up in Queensland. She backed up two nice trials to lead all the way at Doomben and they’ll be looking to lead all the way again here with the good draw. They stick with Deanne Panya as the jockey here, which is a big negative for mine, especially at The Valley, but as mentioned, I think they’ll be keeping instructions fairly simple – find the front and stay there. (6) Essence Of Terror went close first up in a similar race last preparation and can do so again fresh here.
Really does look a nice race for (4) Leonardo Da Hinchi but there’s just a couple of little things preventing me from absolutely launching. The first is the fact that Damian Lane is booted off in favour of Brad Rawiller, despite Lane not being on another horse in the race. It’s odd to see Rawiller ride a leading chance for Weir at present, especially in favour of Lane, so that raises a few questions. He also seemed to struggle a touch around the Valley two starts ago. But if you go off his last-start run behind Brutal, then he must rate the best chance of winning this. Hopefully they plant him right on speed and he doesn’t have any traffic to overcome. (8) Mark The Horse looks the obvious value in the race at $31. He comes out of a strong maiden race at Bendigo, where he ran well for 2nd. Looks as if he will be right up on the speed, if not leading, and he could run a very bold race from that position. (2) Muswellbrook is third up at the mile now after two good runs back to open his campaign. Drops in weight and will have the last shot at those on the speed. Certainly not out of it.
Good race and a few at good odds I’m interested in. I backed both (4) Zizzis and (9) Sweet Rockette at Flemington last start and I’ll be backing both again here. Zizzis was caught in the worst part of the track and could be well suited from the good draw here with Mark Zahra sticking with her. Sweet Rockette was ridden negatively as opposed to the positive tactics that saw her defeat Multaja here two starts back. From barrier 7 she’s likely to be ridden negative again given the amount of speed on paper, but she’s capable of winning this. (12) Pierro Belle lit up the trials as a juvenile but failed to take that trial form to raceday. She was put away straight after failing in Talindert Stakes but resumed with a comfortable victory at Wodonga earlier this month. Drawn wide which doesn’t help but you can make a case for her at $18. (7) Golden Script resumed with a good win at Ballarat. She’s bound to improve second up here just as all Weir horses tend to do. (11) Golden Halo ahs won two from three including a comfortable victory in Adelaide last start. Lane rides for Weir so it’s easy to see why she’s highly fancied. (6) Humma Humma looks to get a good run from the gate and is racing consistently well.
The Group 1 Moir Stakes looks to be an absolute cracker. The short-priced favourite is (6) Nature Strip who remains undefeated since joining the stables of Darren Weir. Although his winning margin over this track and distance last start was very small, he broke the track record in doing so. I doubt they’ll be bustling him out to lead tonight given the enormous amount of speed on paper so we could see him tucked in behind a couple of the frontrunners. With even luck, he’s probably the one to beat. With the expected tempo, I’d suggest (7) Viddora might be the value in the race at $10, but she’ll need the track to play fair and allow those horses from off the speed to make ground. She was a luckless 2nd in this race last year and has placed in all three starts at the track and distance. She’ll relish a hot speed but just needs things to go her way. (8) Houtzen ran a very brave 2nd to Nature Strip first up when he broke the track record. She’s undefeated from three starts when second up from a spell so looks a big chance of claiming a maiden Group 1. (2) Voodoo Lad, (3) Ball Of Muscle and even (5) Faatinah could probably win without surprising.
Pretty keen on the favourite (5) Isaurian to get the job done here. He resumed with a sound win at Sandown in a relatively strong race. He went close in Listed company in Sydney last prep and from the good draw tonight I expect him to go close. (8) Choisborder has won four of his past five starts and is undefeated from four starts at the distance. Steps up in grade tonight but Lane takes the ride from the good draw and you can’t knock his winning form. (6) Manuel can improve second up after a sound return in Adelaide first up. Happy to take on (11) So Far Sokool who probably looks better suited at 1400m.
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