Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, February 22nd.
We have eight races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the true position. The Group 3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes (Race 7) is the feature race of the night.
Check out our selections for every race below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Good Therapy
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Senor Alf
RACE 1
Good little race to kick things off and the speed map could be pretty crucial here. Fine Dane resumed with a solid win at this track and distance two weeks ago, taking his record to two wins and two placings from five starts. Patrick Moloney is replaced by Liam Riordan tonight so he carries a kilogram less than when he won first up. From barrier 2, there’s a good chance he could be box seating on the rail behind the leader. I think that could prove problematic, especially if Algadon Miss lands outside him in the one-out-one-back position. She, too, was a last-start winner here at the Valley, just clinging on over 955m. If she’s able to land outside Fine Dane, she will have the chance to get out and get going earlier than her nearest market rival, meaning she could be off and gone by the time Fine Dane finds clear running. I’m going to stick with her to win again tonight. Montenegro Man looks the value to my eye at $10. He’s going to be coming from back in the field, just as he did first up when flashing home to run 3rd behind Fine Dane. He ran the fastest final 200m of the race and if the speed goes on tonight, he could launch over the top of them late.
Value: Montenegro Man $10
RACE 2
I dislike these staying races at the Valley as I rarely get them right, but I’ll be sticking with last-start course and distance winner Blue Jay Way. She stepped up from 2200m to 3000m last start so with that run under her belt, she should be even fitter and prove hard to beat once again from the good draw. Weave ran 2nd to her on that occasion, beaten a length, and gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour tonight. He’s got a good record at the track and distance. Khezerabad has had four runs back from a spell now and drops in grade tonight. He certainly finds a winnable race. Cuban Fighter is 1/1 at this track and distance and steps up sharply to 3000m at just his third start of the campaign. His third up record is terrible but he is at his right distance now.
RACE 3
Remuera looks the horse with the most upside in this race and with even luck she is the one they all have to beat, but the speed map looks a bit ugly for her from barrier 2. She’s settled back in the field (like most Waller runners do) in her past few starts, so if they use similar tactics tonight, they could be pinned back on the rail behind a wall of runners. I like Kardashing at each way odds with the blinkers going back on tonight. She won a BM58 race fairly easily two starts back and then ran 2nd to Honey Esprit in this grade at Pakenham last start. She should be at peak fitness now and the blinkers indicate to me that she’s ready to win again. Drawn well and Teo Nugent takes 3kg off. $6.00 appeals. Pria Eclipse will run honest as always. She broke through for another win last start after a string of minor placings. She’ll be up on speed and will be there for a long way. Esposito Gold and Yatta Izu can go well at longer odds, while there’s been an interesting early move for Three Strykes.
RACE 4
Competitive race with plenty of hopes in the small field. I’m tipping one of the $41 rank outsiders here, in the form of Senor Alf. He’s currently $41/$9, which I think is a particularly good place price given there’s just eight runners. He’s been beaten a combined 14L in his two runs back from a spell this time in, but if you look back through his career, that’s not unusual. His third up record stands at five starts for three wins and a 3rd placing. Prior to those three wins, his beaten margins in his first two runs back from a spell were 13L, 10L and 9L. He really does seem to grow a leg at his third run back, so I’m not too worried that he’s shown little so far this campaign. At the price, he’s worth a small each way bet.
RACE 5
Another tricky race. Craig Williams is booked to take the ride on Valente tonight, which catches the eye. This horse ran over the 955m here two weeks ago, but that was first up from a 36-week spell. Since been back to the trials and looked good. Williams replaces 3kg apprentice Harry Grace tonight and draws well in barrier 4. Expecting sharp improvement and at $7.50 he looks a reasonable price. I think the market has it wrong with Girls Got Spirit, who is rated a $26 chance. She started $4.80 first up in the same race as Caribbean Pearl and Golden Lustre. She was caught four-wide early and worked hard to sit outside the leader before eventually (unsurprisingly) fading out of it. Forgive that run. She’s drawn poorly again tonight in barrier 11 but if she can get a better run, she might be an each way chance at blowout odds. Miss Toorak Flyer started favourite on the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions Country Cup and was only beaten 1.3L. Five weeks off and freshened up for tonight’s drop back to the 955m. Expect her to be hard to beat.
Value: Girls Got Spirit $26
RACE 6
Interested in Dunlani here at an each way price. She resumed over the mile at Pakenham and was beaten 2L but ran the fastest final 200m of the race. She finished alongside Mieszko, who came out of that race and ran very well at Sandown on Wednesday, which is a good sign. Last preparation, Dunlani was beaten 3.6L first up and then bolted in second up (despite sitting wide) with a step up in distance, so I’m expecting similar improvement tonight. $6.00/$2.10 looks a good each way price for a 1x3 bet.
RACE 7
Very good race this for the fillies at Group 3 level. I could have gone a number of ways, but such is the dominance of the Godolphin stable at present, I’m going to go with the favourite Multaja on top. It just seems they have all their runners ready to go fresh and first up last prep, this filly destroyed them over the 1000m at this track. She’s going to have to produce a similar sort of run tonight from barrier 10 but she has the ability to rocket home over the top of them. Bleu Roche can atone for her first up defeat when she was arguably unlucky behind Humma Humma. Both of those are smart fillies and either could win without surprising. Crack The Code draw poorly in barrier 11 but she’s won four of her five career starts, so it’s hard to tip against her. Victory Kingdom draws the rail and bolted in last start. She should get a good run up on speed and the stable is going well.
RACE 8
Tough one to finish off with. Good Therapy ran well first up behind Mystyko and followed that up with a win over this track and distance last start, carrying 60kg from barrier 12. Drawn better in barrier 3 tonight and looks hard to beat in current form. The slight query is the fact his second up record is so good, but his third up record isn’t as great. Absolute has his first start for the Maher/Eustace camp after being transferred from Darren Weir. Has a good second up record and does come out of strong race behind Greyworm. Rossman drops back from 1400m to 1200m so should be rock-hard fit for this, while Non Paear was dominant at Wodonga last start. Spirit Of Aquada gains a run and is first up here; has the ability but resumes with concussion plates on for the first time which is a little concern.
