The second game on Sunday’s slate sees the Crows travel to the MCG to take on Melbourne. Can Adelaide bury their interstate demons? Or Will Melbourne firmly entrench themselves in the top four?
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AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Adelaide
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, July 23rd, MCG
Trailing by 24 points with just seven minutes remaining, Melbourne looked dead and buried against Brisbane last Friday. The Dees reeled off four straight goals, including two from Jake Melksham, to steal victory with just 33 seconds remaining. The win gave Melbourne a six point buffer from fifth place, and kept them within a game of the Lions in third.
Back to back losses couldn’t have come at a worse time for Adelaide, with the Crows falling out of the top eight, into twelfth. The losses were further compounded by the fact they came against Essendon (8th) and GWS (9th) who leapfrogged Adelaide in the process.
Adelaide’s chances of winning have been dealt a major blow, as the Crows will be without star on baller Rory Laid (shoulder) and Josh Rachele (suspension). Max Michalanney has been managed, while Lachlan Sholl has been dropped.
Melbourne have only two confirmed outs with Harrison Petty missing through a rib injury, and Charlie Spargo being omitted. The Dees have named A.Tomlinson, Michael Hibberd, Bailey Laurie, Brodie Grundy and Kade Chandler in their extended squad.
Melbourne dropped Brodie Grundy last week and it paid dividends for their potency up forward. In the seven weeks prior to Round 18, Melbourne had failed to score above 79 points, averaging just 66 points per game across those seven games.
Max Gawn went solo in the ruck leaving a smaller forwardline lead by Christian Petracca and Jake Melksham, with the Dees kicking over 100 points for the first time since Round 9.
Since moving forward in the last fortnight, Petracca has produced two match winning performances, kicking four goals in each game. Petracca looms as a nightmare matchup for the Crows, given their lack of lockdown medium defenders.
Despite their improvement this season, Adelaide have been terrible away from home in 2023. The Crows are 1-6 away from the Adelaide Oval season, and the MCG has been a place the Crows have struggled at over the last six years. Adelaide haven’t won at the MCG since 2017, and are 0-1-7 in their last eight games at the home of football.
Melbourne are the number one contested possession team in the competition, and although the Crows are ranked third in this statistic, without Rory Laird it’s going to be a tough ask for Adelaide to go with Melbourne in the midfield over four quarters.
Melbourne have won three of their last four games against the Crows by an average margin of 40 points. The Dees match up well against Adelaide, and with their struggles interstate, Melbourne will be too good in this clash.
Melbourne -21.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Christian Petracca 2+ Goals: Petracca’s move up forward has produced eight goals in two weeks, and the Crows don’t have a matchup that’s capable of stopping him. Petracca kicked 3 goals from the midfield the last time he faced Adelaide.
Jack Viney 25+ Disposals: Jack Viney has been arguably Melbourne’s best player over the last five weeks, carrying the Demons midfield in the absence of Clayton Oliver. Viney has produced performances of 32, 25, 41, 25 and 25 disposals across his last five games.
Angus Brayshaw 25+ Disposals: Angus Brayshaw has been building a solid season with an increase in midfield minutes over the last six weeks. Between Round 11 and 16 Brayshaw had picked up 27, 24, 24, 25 and 24 disposals. In the last two weeks since Petracca has moved forward Brayshaw has had an increased role as an inside mid resulting in 25 and 29 disposal outings.
SGM Odds: $3.25 at BoomBet
