A huge NRL matchup on Saturday night pits two teams on the outside looking in, as the 10th placed Knights take on the 13th placed Broncos. A loss here for the Broncos will all but end their season, whilst the Knights are also struggling to keep the top 8 within reach. Desperation awaits, in what should be an entertaining affair between two top 8 sides from last year. Ben Bridge offers his insights and best bets for the clash!
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos
McDonald Jones Stadium, Saturday 20th July, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights were hammered last Sunday, going down to the Sea Eagles 44-6 on the road. Granted, the Knights were without three key players due to Origin (Ponga, Best, Gagai), but that surely doesn’t equate to this sort of loss to a team that was missing their halfback, Daly Cherry-Evans. The Knights conceded 8 line-breaks whilst only making one of their own, and it has resulted in the Knights now sitting outside the 8 by a win, but more worryingly has their for and against at -81, the fifth worst in the league.
The Broncos were also on the receiving end of a last start loss, going down 30-26 to the Dragons at home. The Broncos were without four key members of their squad due to Origin (Haas, Carrigan, Walsh, Cobbo), but they were also missing injured star Adam Reynolds, who have all been named to return on an extended bench this week. Who will play? That is the question, as is will the Broncos discipline improve enough from last weekend to get the win here (49 missed tackles, 10 errors, 7 penalties).
Match Preview
These teams last met in round 15 last season at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos running out 24-20 winners after closing 13.5-point favourites. The Knights were right in the contest, leading 20-12 with just over 10 minutes remaining, but two late tries for the Broncos got them over the line. 10 line-breaks, 17 offloads and 1812 metres was enough for the Broncos to get the two points, but either side could have won the game. The total closed 42.5, with the under well in play until the two late tries to the Broncos pushed the total over.
For this game, the Broncos opened 2.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s results, before re-opening 4.5-point favourites on Monday. After team lists dropped on Tuesday, Knights money came into the market, pushing the number to the other side of 4, a big move this early in the week, with the Broncos now 3.5-point favourites. I make the Broncos 2-point favourites, so no longer see value, however if the Knights pop back up to +4.5 I will look towards this as a bet.
As for the total, it opened 48.5 where it remains, however it is slightly juiced to the under. I agree with this and make a fair total a much lower 42.5. That’s an entire converted try under the current total, which means the under is my best bet for this clash. The Knights (59%) and Broncos (53%), both play more unders than overs, and whilst the Broncos well and truly have the fire power to put points on the board, I believe the Knights will be desperate enough to base their game plan on their defence this weekend.
Under 49.5 total points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
B Best (1+ try) – Best has been in superb form, with my only concern here being the Knights resting the powerful centre after Origin, given he is carrying a niggling injury.
D Mariner (1+ try) – Mariner is currently being priced as a centre in the anytime try scorer market, but with the Broncos’ season on the line, Selwyn Cobbo is highly likely to slide back into the centres, with Mariner shifting to the wing. If this happens, Mariner will close $1.50 for anytime try scorer.
Under 49.5 Points – As above, and with two anytime try scorers selected this really pushes the price up.
SGM Odds: $15.46 at Neds
