The Hawks will square off against the Saints in the opening game of the Sunday triple header in AFL Round 20. As always, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash from PuntingInDanger below.
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AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs St Kilda
Sunday 1:10pm (AEST), July 30th, Marvel Stadium
The Saints have arguably been one of the worst teams in the league over the past few months but still somehow find themselves in the top eight. They have lost four of their last six games, with their only wins coming in close games against West Coast and North Melbourne, who have just three wins between them this season.
The two wins have barely maintained their position in the top eight, but a tough run home which includes games against Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane means St Kilda will need a drastic turn of form if they hope to play finals in 2023.
Coach Ross Lyon swung the axe at the selection table this week, making a big statement by dropping midfielder Jade Gresham in favour of what should be a bigger line-up. Key players Brad Hill and Dougal Howard will both miss with injury while forwards Max King and Tim Membrey are still a few weeks away.
After a disappointing year to date, the Hawks have looked much more competitive over the last three weeks, taking it to the wire against the Giants and Tigers as well as claiming a win over the Kangaroos.
The Hawks offence has been relatively strong for a bottom four side this season, putting up over 70 points per game, but defence has been the main issue, allowing more points this season than any team outside of West Coast and North Melbourne.
The Hawks will make four changes to the side that lost to the Tigers last week, with Grainger-Barrass, Scrimshaw, Amon, Long and Reeves make way for Mackenzie, Bramble and Meek.
The Saints start as 1.70 favourites here, which I actually think is a bit too much respect for them. The Saints form has been deplorable over the last month and their team on paper gets worse this week with Howard and Hill out. The two sides also met earlier this year, where the Hawks ran out 10 point winners after a 5-1 goal final quarter.
The hawks are nearly locked into the 16th place on the ladder, two games behind Fremantle and three games ahead of North Melbourne, so tanking for picks won’t be a factor for the remainder of their season. I think they are value here against a struggling Saints side.
Hawks +5.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Jack Sinclair 25+ Disposals – Sinclair is almost a lock for the All Australian HBF with a few rounds to play, having been far and away the best player for the Saints this season. He has had at least 29 touches in five of his last six games and averages 28.8 on the season.
James Sicily 25+ Disposals – Sicily had one of the most dominant games of any player this season when the Hawks played the Saints earlier in the year. The defender racked up 43 touches, 16 marks for a whopping 165 fantasy points in the win. Saints have allowed more intercept possessions and more disposals to defenders than any team in the league this season.
Rowan Marshall 1+ Goal – Marshall was the catalyst for the Saints comeback over the Roos in the final quarter last week, pushing forward and taking a few big marks late in the game. With Cordy back in the side this week, Marshall could see more time forward.
SGM Odds: $3.40 at BoomBet
