AFL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Carlton
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, July 2nd, MCG
After a month of strong performances, the Hawks came crashing down to earth in a 67 point loss to the Suns in Round 15. Hawthorn went away from their aggressive ball movement and it backfired dramatically, recording 31 less inside 50’s than Gold Coast, despite having 17 more disposals.
Hawthorn played Blake Hardwick as a loose man in defence to cover for James Sicily’s absence, which displaced their forward structure and their ability to transition the ball from end to end.
Carlton come into this fixture on the back of the bye, with their last outing a 59 point victory against Gold Coast. Once again the Blues struggle for continuity with Marc Pittonett suffering a knee injury, Paddy Dow has been omitted, while Matt Cottrell misses through suspension. Jack Silvagni and Ed Curnow return to the side.
Hawthorn regain Chad Wingard, Josh Ward and Fergus Greene, with Lachlan Bramble (omitted), Cam Mackenzie (omitted), Jacob Koschitzke (omitted) and Tyler Brockman (illness) out of the 22.
Hawthorn’s inexperienced defence were all at sea against the Suns potent forward line, and another difficult day looms against Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. Curnow and McKay combined for 5 goals the last time they faced the Hawks, and with No Sicily in this backline, they will have plenty of opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
Carlton’s size and experience looms as another major advantage against the young Hawks midfield. Cripps, Kennedy and Cerra should give the Blues dominance through the middle of the ground, and if they can win the territory battle, it’s going to go a long way towards winning the game.
Carlton have won their last two games against Hawthorn, and although the trend this season suggests it will be a struggle for Carlton coming off bye, however the gap in talent between the two sides is too big for this trend to continue in this clash.
Hawthorn faded badly after quarter time last week against the Suns, and the margin could have been bigger if not for inaccurate kicking. Eight of the Hawks ten losses this season have come by margins greater than nineteen points, so the -18.5 line is very attainable for the Blues.
Carlton -18.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Adam Cerra 25+ Disposals: Cerra has been Carlton’s best player this season, averaging 27 disposals per game. Across his last nine games Cerra has averaged 29 disposals, and has hit the 25+ disposal mark nine times this season.
Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals: Cripps loves playing against Hawthorn, producing disposal returns of 31, 25, 27 (shortened quarters), 28 and 30 from his last five games against the Hawks. Cripps found some form against the Suns and has a major size advantage over the Hawks midfield.
Harry McKay 2+ Goals: Harry McKay had his kicking boots on against the Suns, booting 3 goals straight. Excluding shortened quarters in 2020, McKay has kicked multiple goals in his last three games against Hawthorn, and has kicked seven goals in his last three games this season.
Same Game Multi Odds: $5.25
