Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, October 7th.
We have an eight-race card under lights at Happy Valley tonight, after a week off last week. Tim Geers is keen to play in seven of tonight's eight races and you can find his tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 7 – (5) Hardly Swears
Best Value: Race 6 – (1) Happy Good Guys
Not often I tip horses that Zac Purton has jumped off, but (4) Daily Beauty looks set to run a big race tonight. Purton rode him first up over 1200m, where he settled ninth in the run and closed off in the fastest final 400m of the race after encountering trouble at the 600m mark. He finished last season with a win over this track and distance so the step up to 1650m tonight looks suitable. If he can settle one pair closer from the good draw, he should be right in the finish for the in-form Casper Fownes stable. (3) Faithful Trinity has returned in great form this season, with a win and a 2nd placing, both over this track and distance. He’s up in rating again tonight and carries more weight, as well as copping a wide draw. He might be able to get across and sit outside the leader, in which case he can run another big race. Happy to play both horses, both at $6.00
This looks another nice race for a Casper Fownes-trained horse, in the form of (6) Naboo Star. It will be interesting to see what happens in betting because Casper came out and said he might just need the run. He’s got a good record at the track and distance, with two wins and four placings from eight starts. He makes his seasonal reappearance tonight with regular jockey Vincent Ho aboard, drawn well in barrier 5. Won a trial easily at Conghua leading into tonight and Casper will have him ready to strike fresh. (9) Smiling City probably looms as his biggest threat after a good first up run over track and distance three weeks ago. He won here in Class 4 at the end of last season and his first up run was in Class 3, where he acquitted himself well, finishing 3L off the winner in 4th. He had a poor run throughout and still finished off strongly, so I thought there was more merit to his run than (3) Jolly Honour who ran 2nd in the same race. Happy to back Naboo Star and save on Smiling City.
I think the barrier draw favours (3) Jazz Steed here, who comes off a dead-heat win last start over track and distance. He comes up with barrier 2 which should afford him a good run just off the speed, compared to his main rival (2) Ares who is dealt barrier 10. If you ignore the poor first up run of Jazz Steed, he’s finished top two in his past four starts at this track and distance. He only rises 1kg from his last-start win and he might be able to sneak another one here. I’ll also be having a nickel on (9) Star Present at $51. I was on her first up and she was beaten 19L into last, hardly a good form reference! She gets the tongue tie on tonight and blinkers for the first time, and barrier 1 is a big help at this track and distance. Let’s see if she is sparked into life at all.
Purton looks to have a good chance here and $6.50 looks a good bet for (2) Amazing Luck. He races first up here with three trials under the belt. He resumes over the Happy Valley 1650m, which is the scene of his last win, where Purton was also in the saddle. He carried 60.5kg that night so he’s actually in on a better mark tonight than when he won that race. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 8 but this looks a set up to me. (8) Starlit Knight looks his danger and at $7.00 you can probably also back him. He’s got a decent record at the track and distance and he comes up with barrier 1 first up tonight, which is a big help. He placed in three consecutive races at the end of last season, two of which were over this track and distance, so expect him to be right around the mark.
(2) Kinda Cool is a progressive horse and despite being tasked with top weight tonight, can win this first up from a spell on his way up in class. He’s had four starts, with his sole winning being at the back end of last season over this track and distance. The horse he beat was Jazz Steed, who has since come out and won last start. He should be able to find a spot on speed from barrier 7 and he looks the horse to beat. (1) Happy Good Guys comes up with a good draw in barrier 2 and the claim for apprentice Jerry Chau will bring him down to a very winnable mark. He ran well in 2nd last start and carries 4kg less tonight. At $7.50 he looks a good price. (4) Sell My Sole comes up second favourite but I’ve had enough of him for the time being. He’s started favourite a few times and has turned it up so he can go around without my money tonight.
Pretty keen on (5) Hardly Swears tonight, who is a horse I’ve had a bit of success with over time. He ran well first up over track and distance behind California Rad. He came from 9th on that occasion and finished off well to be beaten 1.3L. Even though California Rad was disappointing last start, I think he’s a pretty smart horse so I wouldn’t completely dismiss the form. Hopefully Hardly Swears can add to his good record at the track and distance and I think $4.20 is a great price, mainly because I think the favourite (2) Mig Energy is a complete cat. The draw does him no favours tonight and I’m really keen to take him on. (7) First Responder has won once from 23 starts and (12) Mehboob is another pretender. The value could be (1) Good Beauty draws barrier 1 and gets blinkers back on tonight so include him at $18.
(3) Highland Fortune will be better suited over 1200m+ but he might still be good enough to win fresh over 1000m tonight with the good draw. He’s raced over this distance once before and failed, but that was a completely different set up, having had two 1200m runs prior to it. He’s first up tonight so with freshness in his legs and a favourable barrier, he can win. If he’s not at his best, there’s a few good horses around him. (10) Allied Agility ran well first up at Sha Tin and draws barrier 1 tonight, so he’ll get every chance to rise in class and win. (9) Classic Unicorn draws wide but he won by 4L over this track and distance last prep when he was able to dictate from out the front. (4) Larson makes his stable debut for Frankie Lor tonight, having previously been with John Moore. He has a terrific record at the track and distance so from the good draw, he looks a bet at $6.50. Backing Highland Fortune and Larson.
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