The AFL season is underway and Saturday boasts a fantastic four slate on Saturday. The headline clash of the day sees the Cats hosting the Saints from the all new GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs St Kilda
GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 16th March, 7.30pm (AEDT)
The Cats will unveil their revamped stadium on Saturday night as they host the Saints in one of the games of the weekend. They will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023, which saw them miss the finals for the first time in eight seasons.
Geelong were relatively quiet in the offseason, picking up talent through the draft and rookie draft alone. However, they lost some key players to trades and retirement including Isaac Smith, Sam Menegola and Esava Ratugolea.
A positive for the Cats is that they come into the season as one of the healthier sides in the league, set to only be missing midfielder Cam Guthrie and forward Gary Rohan for their season opener.
The same can’t be said for the Saints, who were tracking well until their pre-season games against the Kangaroos and Bombers, where they suffered injuries to Dougal Howard and Marcus Windhager to join a pretty extensive list of existing injuries. Dan Butler, Jack Hayes, Paddy Dow, Hunter Clark and Ben Paton will miss against the Cats, while Jack Sinclair will need to pass a fitness test to play.
Also contrary to the Cats, the Saints were one of the busier teams in the offseason, bringing in plenty of ready made talent through trade and draft, some of whom are likely to feature this week in the likes of Riley Bonner, Liam Henry and debutant Darcy Wilson.
The additions all seem to have a theme to them, and the pre-season games highlighted that with the Saints playing a faster and more attacking style of football. Expect them to kick higher scores this year and likely allow higher scores as well after being the No.1 ranked defence in the league last season.
Match Prediction
The Saints looked hot in the pre-season and I’m struggling to understand some expert opinions that have them finishing in the bottom half of the ladder or even some that have them in the bottom four. They were without their spearhead Max King for the majority of the season last year and still managed to finish sixth. I also can’t envision any of their key players getting worse this season due to their age demographic. Core players like Jack Steele, Rowan Marshall, Jack Sinclair and Callum Wilkie are all still in their prime while emerging players in Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager will all improve with another pre-season under their belt.
The Cats are deserving favourites here given their absolutely dominant historical form at home, but I think the 15.5 is a tough high and I’m happy to take the Saints at that line. They were far too good for the Cats at the end of last season, albeit at Marvel, but I think the Saints should be a firm top six/eight contender this year and should be ultra competitive in these tough road games.
St Kilda +12.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Rowan Marshall 20+ Disposals - The Saints will be largely sticking with their plan to play Rowan Marshall as the only recognised ruckman for at least the early parts of this season. Should be around the footy plenty and ended the 2023 season in red hot form, averaging 23.1 over his last 10 games and finishing the year with a dominant 31 touches in the elimination final to the Giants.
Max King 2+ Goals - He missed a lot of the season last year, playing just 11 games, but was still one of the top players in the league when it games to goals per game at 2.55 per game. Kicked 3.3 in the late season win over the Cats last year as they struggled to find a suitable matchup for him.
Patrick Dangerfield 20+ Disposals - With no Guthrie in the side at the moment, I think skipper Dangerfield will be needed in the middle of the ground to do some of the grunt work. Backing him to be around the footy plenty on Saturday night.
SGM Odds: $3 at BoomBet
