2024 AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Sunday 1:00pm AEST, April 14th, GMHBA Stadium
Geelong produced a gutsy performance in Gather Round with a four point win over the Western Bulldogs, holding off a fast finishing Bulldogs outfit. The Cats lead from halfway through the second quarter, right to the finish despite the Dogs kicking the last three goals of the game.
The win was led by a remarkable performance from Jeremy Cameron, who had 27 disposals and 2 goals playing largely up the ground. Cameron’s performance highlighted the flexibility the Cats have shown since the start of 2022, and why they’re a genuine premiership contender.
The Cats will blood Connor O’Sullivan for his debut, with the pick 11 from the 2023 National Draft coming in for Jake Kolodjashnij who has been managed. Geelong will only get stronger in the coming weeks with Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie still out through injury.
North Melbourne have made four changes following their 70 point loss against Brisbane, and it doesn’t make the Roos prospects of picking up their first win of the season any easier. Cam Zurhaar (calf), Liam Shiels (general soreness) and Kallan Dawson (ankle) all miss through injury, while Jaidyn Stephenson has been dropped.
Stephenson only recorded nine disposals against the Lions and has failed to pick up more than eleven disposals in a game through the opening month of the season.
North Melbourne were blown off the park against Brisbane, trailing for the entirety of the game and were lucky Brisbane kicked 16.16 in what could have easily been a loss in excess of 100 points. The Roos were smashing in all key statistical areas of the game, recording differences of -50 for disposals, -40 for inside 50’s, -26 in contested possessions and -10 in clearances.
The Kangaroos lack quality in their key defensive stocks, so when they’ve lost control in the clearance battle during games this season, the scoreboard blows out quickly. If they conceded another 71 inside 50’s this week, Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins are going to have an absolute field day.
Geelong’s offensive output has been impressive to start 2024, averaging 93 points per game, the fifth most in the competition. The Cats have scored 95 points or more in three of their four games this season.
Match Prediction: Obviously the result in this fixture is without question with the sides sitting at 4-0 and 0-4 respectively, and with North Melbourne’s last two weeks producing defeats of 56 and 70 points, it’s difficult to see them keeping this game close. Geelong have won eleven straight games against the Kangaroos and have won ten of their last eleven games against North Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium.
The last three games between these two sides have seen the Cats win by 62 points, 112 points, and 60 points. The line of -57.5 looks big on paper, but when you look at the recent form and the way Geelong matches up against North Melbourne, the Cats are more than capable of covering this line.
Geelong -57.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals: No second year blues for last year’s Rising Star winner, who is averaging 33 disposals per game in 2024. Sheezel has opened 2024 with four straight 30 disposal performances, and has hit the 30 disposal mark in six of his last seven games.
Tanner Bruhn 20+ Disposals: Bruhn has benefited from the Cats injury struck midfield, gaining some extra time on ball to start this season. The former Giant has a CBA percentage of 66% in 2024, the third highest percentage for a Geelong player this season and a significant increase on his 2023 percentage of 49%. Bruhn’s uptake in centre bounce attendances has seen him average 21 disposals per game, reaching the 20 disposal mark in two of his three games this season.
Gryan Miers 20+ Disposals: Gryan Miers has backed up a breakout 2023 season, with career best numbers across the first month of 2024. Miers is averaging a career high 22 disposals per game, and is playing the half forward role better than any other player in the competition at the moment. Miers has reached the 20 disposal mark in all four of his games this season, as the majority of the Cats inside 50’s go through the crafty half forward.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
