There are two 7:30pm (AEST) fixtures on the cards this Saturday in AFL Round 16 and one of those is a blockbuster at the MCG between the Cats and the Bombers. The Cats are currently in freefall after their hot start to the season, and snapping their poor run of form will be no easy task against these rampaging Bombers. Find our full preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi below!
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2024 AFL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Essendon
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, June 29th, MCG
Geelong made a brilliant start to the season with wins in each of their first seven games to storm into premiership contention. However, their form since Round 8 has been horrible and they enter Round 16 having lost six of their past seven matches.
The Cats were simply no match for the highly-fancied Blues last weekend as they were destroyed by 63 points in front of a packed house at the MCG. Alarmingly, the Cats have now conceded 100+ points in five of their last eight games, and only North Melbourne have a worse defensive record over that span.
Salt was added to the Cats wounds in the aftermath of their recent defeat with Patrick Dangerfield given a one-match ban. Thankfully for Cats fans, Danger was able to have his ban thrown out at the tribunal midweek, meaning he’s free to play this weekend.
The Cats are injecting some youth into the seniors this weekend with Lawson Humphries set to make his debut. Also coming in are youngsters Shannon Neale and Mitch Knevitt. Tom Hawkins is the big out and whether or not he returns at all this season remains to be seen.
Essendon’s Round 14 bye came at a handy time as their form was just starting to desert them. They went into their week off having lost consecutive games for the first time this season. However, they were solid in their return game against the Eagles last weekend, defeating them by 30 points in an old-fashioned shootout (122-92).
The Bombers will have some interesting decisions to make at selection once Darcy Parish become available in three weeks. Their current midfield mix is firing, particularly Sam Durham who would be in the top couple of the most improved players in the competition this season.
In terms of this week, the Bombers have made just the two changes. Todd Goldstein returns after being managed last round and will form a two-pronged ruck attack with Sam Draper. Jade Gresham also returns after missing against the Eagles due to personal reasons.
Match Prediction: The Cats season is in freefall and there haven’t been any genuine signs of their horrible form turning around. And when you consider the Bombers are flying and currently sitting third on the ladder, it’s interesting to see this fixture priced as a near even-money contest. Taking the Bombers in the H2H market looks to be the play here.
Essendon to Win
$1.84 (1.5 Units) Palmerbet
Same Game Multi
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Jeremy Cameron 2+ Goals – Jezza returned to form somewhat last outing with three goals to back up his two from the game prior. He stands out as value for multiple goals here.
Kyle Langford 2+ Goals – After a couple of quieter rounds, Langford was able to hit the scoreboard for multiple goals last weekend. He’s now kicked 2+ in 10/14 games this season.
Zach Guthrie 15+ Disposals – With all the attention going to Stewart, Zach Guthrie has been able to put up career-high numbers this season. He’s still solid value for 15+ touches.
Xavier Duursma 15+ Disposals – Has been fantastic in his first year at the Bombers and was great again last weekend. He should get to 15 touches here.
SGM Odds: $3.50 at BoomBet
