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2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Adelaide
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, 3rd August, GMHBA Stadium
A big second half powered Geelong to their fourth win from their last five games, in a 40 point win over North Melbourne. The Cats kicked ten goals to six in the second half, in what was a ruthlessly efficient performance from Chris Scott’s side.
Geelong had 53 less disposals and 11 fewer contested possessions than the Kangaroos, but had 9 more inside 50’s and 10 more scoring shots. The Cats were led by Tom Stewart (32 disposals), Ollie Dempsey (18 disposals, 3 goals) and Tyson Stengle (3 goals).
Adelaide were humiliated in the final game of Round 21, going down by 66 points against Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval. After leading early in the second quarter, the Crows conceded 13 unanswered goals, as they only managed three goals after quarter time, with two of those coming in the final 90 seconds of the game.
Adelaide recorded -56 disposals, -17 inside 50’s, -10 marks, and conceded a score from 48.3% off Hawthorn’s inside 50’s. The Crows lack of quality in their key defensive posts was exposed, and it looms as a major concern for Adelaide when they head to Geelong.
Matthew Nicks’ side have conceded over 100 points in four of their last eight games, conceding an average score of 93 points per game during that eight game period, which is remarkable given they held St Kilda to 39 points three weeks ago.
Geelong’s attacking game has lifted in a major way over the last five weeks, with an average score of 92 points despite being held to 48 points against the Bulldogs two weeks ago. The Cats are ranked fifth in the AFL for points per game in 2024 with an average of 91 points per game.
The Cats scoring profile is arguably the best in the competition, generating scores from an abundance of sources, in all three areas of the ground. Geelong ranks 5th in points from stoppage 35.2, 4th in points from turnover 51.9, 6th points from forward half 43.4 and 3rd in points from centre bounce 13.6. Geelong ranks in the top eight for all three score sources and all three score origins, one of only teams in the league to do that this season.
Match Prediction: The end of the season can’t come quick enough for Adelaide, while Geelong are shaping up for a crack at a top four berth makes this loom as a clash that once again could get ugly for the Crows. Adelaide’s undermanned defence doesn’t have the quality to hold out the Cats in-form
Geelong have won six of their last seven games against Adelaide, and their record against the Crows at GMHBA Stadium is utterly dominant. The Cats have won 13 straight games against Matthew Nicks’ side at their home ground, with Adelaide’s last win in Geelong coming back in 2003.
Geelong -19.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals: Chris Scott’s move to shift Tom Stewart to the midfield after struggling to break a tag at half back has proved to be a masterstroke. In his five games as a midfielder Stewart has recorded 23, 26, 26, 26 and 32 disposals.
Jake Soligo 25+ Disposals: After a lean month between Rounds 13-17, Jake Soligo has gotten back to the form he showed earlier in the season. Soligo has averaged 25 disposals across his last three games, including a team high 30 disposals last week against the Hawks.
Tyson Stengle 2+ Goals: Much has been made of Stengle’s post game last week, however his form this season cannot be denied. Stengle has kicked multiple goals in 12 of his 19 games in 2024, kicking 37 goals across the season. Stengle has kicked 4 goals in his 2 games against his former side and will be eager to produce a big performance.
