AFL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Carlton
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, July 9th, Optus Stadium
Fremantle squandered a chance to be level on points with eight place on the AFL ladder, when the Dockers conceded seven final quarter goals in a 29 point defeat against the Bulldogs. The Dockers fell apart after hitting the lead early in the final term, with this fixture against Carlton becoming a must win.
Carlton made it back to back wins with a 60 point demolition against Hawthorn in Round 16. The Blues held the Hawks goalless for the first half as they dominated the fixture from start to finish.
Carlton welcome back Matthew Cottrell from suspension, as Ed Curnow and sub George Hewett have been omitted from last week’s side. Having Lewis Young and Jack Silvagni going against Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson is going to be a major issue for Carlton.
Fremantle have lost Nat Fyfe to a foot injury, with last week’s sub Neil Erasumus being upgraded to the starting 22.
Although Carlton’s last two games have been a major improvement against their output across the rest of the season, it’s difficult to take much out of wins against Gold Coast and Hawthorn.
Fremantle are ranked sixth in the competition for clearances, led by Caleb Serong who ranks fifth in the AFL for clearances. With Darcy coming up against no recognised ruckman, he should be able to give the Dockers some serious dominance in the centre of the ground.
The other element of having two dominant ruckmen is that it provides a serious attacking threat against an undersized Carlton defence with only Mitch McGovern as the second tall next to Jacob Weitering.
Despite putting up big scores against mediocre opponents in their last two games, Carlton rank fifteenth in the competition for points for, and they’ve got a tough task against one of the strongest defensive sides in the competition. Seven times this season the Dockers have kept an opposing side to under 79 points.
Fremantle will be desperate to create a slow dour contest, which was the kryptonite of Carlton during their six game losing streak this season. If the Dockers can deny Carlton their ball movement, it’s going to be tough for the Blues to kick a winning score.
Darcy and Jackson will be the key differentiating factor in this clash, and the Dockers will keep themselves in the race for a finals place.
Fremantle to Win
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
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Caleb Serong 30+ Disposals: Despite Fremantle’s up and down form, Caleb Serong is having a stellar season averaging 31 disposals per game, the sixth most in the competition. Serong’s last four games have produced returns of 31, 32, 32 and 38 disposals.
Adam Cerra 25+ Disposals: Cerra is having an excellent second season in blue, and is averaging 28 disposals per game across his last four games. Cerra has hit the 25+ disposal mark in five of his last six games, and recorded 32 disposals the last time he faced his former side.
Jye Amiss 2+ Goals: Jye Amiss continued his excellent run of form, kicking four goals in the Dockers defeat to the Bulldogs. Amiss has kicked 21 goals over his last eight games with returns of 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 0, 2 and 4 goals.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.10
