Welcome to our horse racing preview for Makybe Diva Stakes Day at Flemington on Saturday 16th September. We have a bumper nine-race card on a Good 3 track with the rail in the true position. There is up to 6mm of rain predicted so we will have to keep an eye on track conditons.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Hartnell Race 7
Best Value: Limestone EW Race 5
Race 1
There looks to be a little class difference between JORDA, ROOMOOZ and the rest of the field here. JORDA comes down from Sydney after a sound first up run behind Pariah, who then ran 2nd to Menari which looks to be a very hot formline. It's hard to know whether or not the wide barrier will be beneficial or not for the straight races, but Kerrin McEvoy coming down to ride all the Godolphin horses is a huge positive. I think the 1100m may just suit Jorda slightly more than Roomooz, and I think we'll see Jorda improve quite significantly from that first up performance. Roomooz returned with a terrific win over Tulip over 1200m at Moonee Valley. I think that's another very good formline, and I was very keen on her last weekend before she was scratched due to a bacterial infection in her leg. From all reports it was very minor, but that, coupled with the drop from 1200m to 1100m for a horse that I think will be better suited over slightly further, is enough to sway me to Jorda. At the prices ($3 for Jorda, $5 for Roomooz), we can back Jorda and save on Roomooz. Expect PLOVERSET to bounce back to form here after her last start failure. She was choked down after getting her tongue over the bit, so with the tongue tie on expect her to run a big race. Her first up run behind Crown Witness and Catchy would see her be competitive here.SPLIT LIP, LUQYAA and MINTHA can go well.
TIP: Jorda / Ploverset EW
Race 2
I've tried hard to find something to beat ROYAL SYMPHONY but I just can't pass up on the $2.25 we're getting for him. He's won his three starts by a combined 11.25L, and he smoked Anchor Bid last start, who then came out and bolted in at his next start. He's had 70 days between runs but he's been kept fit with some exhibition gallops, and Tony McEvoy was definitive in saying he's fit and forward enough to win this. There's no doubt this is his stiffest test so far but he's the Guineas favourite for a reason. MURAAHIB was a flashing light first up. This is another horse being set for the Guineas and the step up to 1400m is a big plus for him. He was held up til the 100m mark last start and flashed home for 3rd behind Merchant Navy, so with equal luck in running he could be the one to cause the upset. The booking of Williams is a notable one and I'll likely be saving on him at $7.50.TOGA PICTA is an interesting runner for Godolphin, coming down from Sydney after finishing 7th of 9 last start behind Dracarys. That's proven to be a very strong formline with Gold Standard coming out of that race to win the Stan Fox at his next start. Has trialled since that race and went well, although I don't think the two horses that finished ahead of him are much good. Well drawn for Kerrin McEvoy, interesting runner at double figures. Don't rule out CLIFF'S EDGE or SEBFIRE for Weir. LONE EAGLE and METSON others to consider.
TIP: Royal Symphony
Race 3
Really nice race, this. Pretty keen on two here. The first is MR SNEAKY who we backed first up at a very juicy price and he delivered big time, winning by 2.5L with 60kg on his back. Drops 6kg into this and draws very well, up to 1400m and has a good record over the track and distance. On times, based on the sectionals of his win last start, he should be winning this and he's already been backed into $3.20 after opening $5. Interestingly, Mark Zahra jumps off him to ride Snitzson. Whether that is due to weight or prior commitments, I'm not sure. But he rode both Mr Sneaky and Snitzson last start, and he stays aboard Snitzson here. Snitzson ran a blinder for 4th behind Grande Rosso last start, beaten 1L. He recorded the final 400m for the race, and now gets to the scene of his best performance at his third run back for the campaign. Draws well and I'm very keen to back him each way here at $8. CHOCOLATE HOLIC is a horse I want to follow. He's fit now and in-form after stepping up to 1400m last start. He's never finished outside the top two at this distance and when Weir gets these horses up and running and in form, they generally continue improving. I think he's definitely worth saving on around the $4.80 mark. THEANSWERMYFRIEND is no slouch and he'll go straight to the front from the wide barrier. Mr Sneaky gave him windburn last start and actually gets in better at the weights today, so unless TheAnswerMyFriend can rate the race absolutely to suit himself, I doubt he can turn the tables. VIOLATE worth including at $31 - he recorded the fastest final 200m last start behind Mr Sneaky.
TIP: Mr Sneaky / Snitzson EW
Race 4
Does look a race between REDKIRK WARRIOR and VOODOO LAD but you never know with these straight races. I've landed on REDKIRK WARRIOR who just seems to have been set specifically for this race. First up last prep he won the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, where he beat Voodoo Lad by 2L. He's been saved for this race due to his good fresh record and given he's one of two stable elects for The Everest, you'd think he should be winning this. The only concern I have is if that rain does arrive and the track gets downgraded. He doesn't go in the wet, so if the rain comes, I think it'd probably be worth backing VOODOO LAD for the bigger return. Voodoo Lad gets a 2kg weight swing on Redkirk Warrior from the Newmarket, and he's also got the run under the belt this prep. That run was a good win in Group 3 company over 1100m at Caulfield. His second up record is very good but not as lethal as his first up record. Damian Lane takes over from Rawiller, who was pre-booked to ride Scales Of Justice, and the inside may be the place to be so barrier 2 isn't bad at all. No surprises to see him win. SCALES OF JUSTICE will likely need 1400m or 1600m to really be a genuine winning chance, but in saying that he has never missed a place so expect a good run from him here at his first Melbourne start. First go down the straight is a slight query. SO SI BON finished 2nd by 0.75L behind Voodoo Lad last start and gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour so there's no reason he can't be competitive here. Big watch on JAPONISME first up at $14. He's had success in Group 1 company down the straight and I just get the feeling Waller may think he has him back to his best. He's had a trickle of early money and Waller's Melbourne runners have been going well lately. ATTENTION the blowout.
TIP: Redkirk Warrior
Race 5
Cracking race. Two I want to be on here. The first is CATCHY. She just found one too good first up and I think that one is pretty good. The step up in trip to 1200m here is ideal for her and with that run under her belt I expect her to really go close here. $3.70 is about right given the depth in this race and although it's her first start down the straight, Lindsay Park would have her well educated (she has jumped out down the straight). I think the best value in the race is LIMESTONE at $14. Her betting drift first up told you all you needed to know about her condition and what the stable thought of her chances in that race, and she ran accordingly. Three weeks since that run, I'm expecting huge improvement from her, and she's already a winner down the Flemington straight. Right up there with Catchy on her best form and I think we'll see her bounce back today. Damian Lane retains the ride, think she's a huge chance here. SUMMER PASSAGE is another one that looks a value chance at double figure odds. Group 1 winner in New Zealand over 1200m before running 2nd to Invader in the Group 1 Sires' back in the Autumn. Could be looking for a bit more ground but she's got the ability to run well here. JUKEBOX had the absolute run of the race first up when running down PLUTOCRACY very late. First go down the Flemington straight and with Williams on board from barrier 2 that could spell trouble! I'll be taking him on today. ESPERENCE does look like he has the ability to measure up but he jumps from midweek BM64 company to legitimate Group 1 company, so I'd need to see him do it at this level before taking that price. The money was there to suggest BOOKER would run well first up and her run was enormous after covering ground the entire race. The form line looks like one that can be followed but again, she faces a stiffer test here. PLUTOCRACY can go well again. Several winning chances here in a very good race.
TIP: Catchy / Limestone EW (Best Value)
Race 6
Wide open race with a stack of chances. I think we can stick with OREGON'S DAY after she won for us last start when stepping up from 1100m to 1400m. With that run over 1400m under her belt, and this being her third up run, I think she's set to improve again so despite the wide barrier I think it's worth backing her again at $5.50. Back in March in Group 2 company at this track and distance she was beaten 3.7L by I Am A Star, but that was after missing the start by 4L, tacking on to the back of the field and charging home. She's right up to that sort of company. JENNIFER LYNN was a nice run first up behind Savannah Amour. She was held up from the 300m-100m and she steps up to a distance she's won at three times from four starts. Has a win and a 2nd from two starts at the track and the $15 appeals. I think RISQUE is the blowout but worth including. We backed her last start and she was very disappointing. Her two runs this prep have been absolutely awful. But Hayes seems to think she's showing some signs of improvement in trackwork and it was only last year that she ran 3rd in the Guineas behind Palentino. At $61 she's a big price once again here but she admittedly does need to improve. SWAMPLAND arguably should have beaten Oregon's Day last start and does get a 1kg weight swing in her favour. She's also drawn to get a beautiful run in midfield, so with even luck there's no reason she can't challenge again here. She's got a good record at the track and distance so expect a good showing once again. I AM A STAR comes into this third up where she's won twice from three starts previously. She's won three from four at the track and drops from Group 1 WFA company back to Mares Group 3 grade. She's got the weight to carry, but she's the proven class runner in the field.
TIP: Oregon's Day / Jennifer Lynn EW
Race 7
I think the $1.90 for HARTNELL here is probably the way to anchor your multis for the day. Very, very hard to see him getting beaten here after what he produced first up. I was firmly against him on that occasion and he won in a canter. Given that's he typically improves with every run, I just find it very hard to see him getting rolled over 1600m here. Very keen. I've got LE ROMAIN as his biggest danger. He just wasn't suited at all in the Memsie last start. I think he's better suited over 1600m and he is a Group 1 winner over the track and distance. INFERENCE is one at huge odds I'll be including. He is undefeated second up from a spell, and won a Group 1 over this distance third up last prep. Respecting him at $21. BLACK HEART BART was better suited last start second up over 1400m. The stable had him peaking for that race and I think he's a much better horse over 1400m than 1600m so I'm very happy to risk him here. HEY DOC can go well, HUMIDOR definitely one to follow on to the Caulfield Cup, and SEABURGE should start to show some signs of improvement out to this distance.
TIP: Hartnell (Best Bet)
Race 8
This is a great race. Six runners from the Team Williams operation makes it slightly tricky, and it will be hugely important to pay attention to the market here. CROCODILE ROCK was disappointing not to win last start but everything seems to line up for him here. He carried 60.5kg on that occasion and drops 6.5kg to carry just 54kg today. He's had the two runs under the belt, steps up sharply in trip to 2500m, gets Kerrin McEvoy on board, and has the ability to control the race from the front to suit himself. This was the one horse Nick Williams earmarked as the horse to follow as the Spring progresses, and the early money has come in for him big time. Taking $4.40 with all that considered. I actually think HANS HOLBEIN could be ready to show up. He found himself back near last in his last start despite them saying he'd be forward. I thought he worked home well enough and he now gets to a distance he's undefeated at. The last time he ran over this distance at this track he won by 8L. Certainly if the rain comes I will be having a decent bet on him. ALMANDIN returned in super order first up, which was his first start since last year's Melbourne Cup win. Carries 61kg again here but they seriously want to win the Cup again with him this year so he will be expected to run a big race once again. Plenty of other chances in an open race. YOGI will be giving them a huge start today so happy to take him on.
TIP: Crocodile Rock / Hans Holbein EW
Race 9
Hate this race purely because of the size of the field which generally results in a few runners being unable to get a legitimate crack in the straight, and because there's more than a handful of horses that could win if things go their way. I do think, however, two Weir horses are absolutely primed to win this and I'll be backing both. AMELIE'S START is the first. Short enough at the $4 mark, but is undefeated third up from a spell, draws barrier 1 to sit in the first half of the field, and Damian Lane takes over from Luke Currie who has ridden her in her past two starts. That tells me she's nailed on to peak here and Weir wouldn't make a jockey change like that to put Lane on (who I think is his number 1 rider) if she wasn't ready to win this. Those who followed two weeks ago will know TIAMO GRACE was absolutely robbed of any chance in the straight when we backed her around the $26 mark. She was cruising and just ran into backsides the entire straight. I genuinely think she would have gone close, and there was a trickle of money to suggest she was going to go close that day. We're getting a quarter of the price today unfortunately, but if she gains a run (she's second emergency currently) then she should run well.We were also on COOL CHAP who was luckless first up for the new stable. They'll ride him quiet from the wide barrier here but he'll run well. AMOVATIO, HARDHAM, NOZOMI and RIYADH (if he gets a run) could all win if they got things their way.
TIP: Amelie's Start
_ _ _
The team at TopBetta have announced of their brand new Global Tote product, offering punters guaranteed better odds than provided on the regular totes. Don't be satisfied with poor odds! Check out the Global Tote which will give you the biggest bang for your buck when punting on the races this weekend!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
