AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Sydney
Saturday 7:25pm AEST, July 29th, Marvel Stadium
With losses to Geelong and the Western Bulldogs in the last fortnight, Essendon’s season looks done and dusted. The Bombers have fallen to eleventh place with a percentage of 98.4%, meaning Essendon would likely have to win four of their final five games to finish in the top eight.
Essendon have been dealt a huge injury blow with Jordan Ridley unlikely to feature again in 2023 after suffering a quad strain in the defeat against the Dogs. Jake Stringer is also out through a foot injury, with Jye Menzie coming back into the side.
Sydney kept their slim finals hopes alive with a 29 point win over Fremantle in Round 19. The Swans sit in twelfth place, but are only a game outside of the top eight as they take an unchanged side from their comprehensive victory over Fremantle.
Essendon’s young midfield were taken to the cleaners by the Dogs last week, losing the contested possession count by 30 and clearance battle by 21. The Bombers rank 16th in the competition for contested possessions and 18th for clearances. Sydney’s experienced midfield have bullied Essendon for a long period of time, and they’ll be confident that they can once again do a number on the Bombers through the middle of the ground.
The Bombers attacking game has left them in their last five games in which they have lost four of. In their four losses during this span, Essendon has averaged just 57 points and have failed to kick more than ten goals in a game.
Sydney will have a major size advantage in their forward line given Jordan Ridley’s absence. Essendon have only Brandon Zerk-Thatcher as a genuine key defender, with Jayden Laverde and Jake Kelly having to play above their size against a forward line featuring Franklin, McDonald and Amartey.
It’s a rare venture to Melbourne to face the Bombers for Sydney, with nine of their last thirteen games against Essendon being played in Sydney. The Swans have had the wood over Essendon, winning nine of their last thirteen games against the Bombers.
Sydney are in form having won their last two games and given the form slump Essendon are in, the line at -6.5 is remarkably small. With their finals hopes still alive, Sydney will come out all guns blazing against an Essendon side that they’ve had the wood over for quite some time.
Sydney -6.5
$1.88 (2.5 Units)
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Luke Parker 25+ Disposals: Luke Parker has led the Swans resurgence to the past five weeks recording 28, 27, 28, 23 and 31 disposals. Parker has loved playing against the Bombers, reaching the 25+ disposal mark in four of his last five games, with returns of 26, 23, 26, 32 and 25 disposals.
Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Errol had a quiet outing by his standards against the Dockers, but the young gun has put together an All-Australian standard season. Gulden has averaged 25 disposals per game in 2023, and averaged 29 disposals per game in the five games leading into Round 19.
Lance Franklin 2+ Goals: Franklin has kicked more goals against Essendon than any other side across his legendary career. Buddy has kicked 79 in 20 games against Essendon, and has found form over the last month kicking 9 goals in his last four games.
SGM Odds: $4 at BoomBet
