Sunday afternoon football kicks off under the roof at Marvel as Essendon and North Melbourne go head to head. Can the Roos cause an upset? Or will the Bombers win their third game in a row?
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AFL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs North Melbourne
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, Sunday 19th May, Marvel Stadium
Essendon picked up their best win of the season with a 20 point win over GWS last week. The Bombers trailed by 22 points early in the second quarter and it looked like a potential repeat of the infamous Round 23 game last season, however the Dons gritted their teeth and turned the tide.
Essendon kicked eight goals to three in the second half as they blanketed the Giants in what was an impressive performance. The challenge now for Essendon is to continue their form in the next fortnight against bottom four teams, which has been an issue for the Bombers over the last decade.
North Melbourne’s winless streak extended to nine games as the Roos were well off the pace against Gold Coast in Darwin. North Melbourne were beaten by 68 points as they conceded 12 goals to five in a poor second half and were lucky to not lose by more given the Suns kicked 17.18.
The defeat was the Kangaroos fifth defeat in excess of 50 points in what has been another difficult campaign for North Melbourne. The Roos are the worst defensive side in the AFL, conceding 120 points per game through nine games. It’s not much better at the other end of the ground for North Melbourne, who are the second lowest scoring side in the league averaging 67 points for.
Essendon’s improvement after the 69 point hiding they copped from Port Adelaide in Round 4 has come from their defensive work. The Bombers conceded an average score of 99 points per game between rounds 1-4, but between rounds 5-9 have only conceded 72 points per game.
Essendon have also been one of the best clearance teams in the competition, ranking third for clearances which has allowed Brad Scott’s system to flourish as the Bombers become a front half team.
The Bombers have had a +35 inside 50 differential over their last three games, which has been arguably the key contributor to Essendon’s defence. Essendon have been able to get set behind the ball which has given opponents less transition opportunities, which has been such an issue for the Bombers over the last few years.
Match Prediction: Although North Melbourne are struggling this season, the line of 49.5 is way too much for the Bombers to cover. Essendon’s six wins this season have come by margins of 24, 4, 29, 3, 6 and 20 points. The Kangaroos were one of the worst sides in the competition last season, but gave the Bombers plenty of troubles with the two games being decided by only 6 and 9 points.
Essendon are not the slingshot offensive team that they have been in previous seasons, and their set shot kicking has well and truly come back to the mean after a red hot start to the season. The Bombers haven’t kicked a score above 85 points over the last month, and teams don’t win games by over 50 points if they are scoring in the 70’s and 80’s. North Melbourne will be desperate to finally get a win on the board, and they will be competitive in this clash.
North Melbourne +49.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals: Sheezel has had a quiet fortnight by his standards after a red hot start to 2024. Despite only having 21 and 24 disposals in his last two games, Sheezel is still averaging 30 disposals per game this season, and will enjoy being back under the roof at Marvel where he averages 29.2 disposals per game. Sheezel recorded 32 disposals in his last outing against the Bombers.
Nic Martin 25+ Disposals: Nic Martin is hitting his straps in his new role at half back, averaging 31 disposals per game. Martin has hit the 25+ disposal mark in nine out of nine games in 2024.
Nick Larkey 2+ Goals: Despite North Melbourne struggling, once again Nick Larkey continues to deliver up forward, kicking 18 goals from 9 games. Larkey has kicked 10 goals in his last four games against Essendon, kicking multiple goals in three of those four games.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
