Fremantle head to the MCG with a chance to cement their place in the top four and put another coffin in Essendon’s season. Can the Bombers respond after an embarrassing performance? Or will the Dockers win their third game on the bounce?
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2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Fremantle
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, 4th August, MCG
Fremantle moved into third place on the ladder thanks to an impressive second half in the Western Derby. The Dockers trailed by 20 points in the second term, before kicking fourteen of the last nineteen goals in the game to run out 35 point winners.
The Dockers star duo of Andy Brayshaw (36 disposals, 1 goal) and Caleb Serong (32 disposals, 1 goal) led the way for Fremantle, with the victory leaving them only 2.3% off second place on the ladder.
Essendon’s season has hit rock bottom after crashing out of the top eight for the first time since Round 6. The Bombers have lost three straight games to sides outside of the top eight, with the 53 point defeat to St Kilda last week a completely competitive performance.
It leaves Essendon two points outside of the top eight with games against Fremantle, Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane to come and their finals hopes all but gone. It reads nearly identical to last season and could lead to an ugly month with games against the top three teams in the competition.
The Bombers will be without Jordan Ridley for the next three weeks which is the last thing their struggling defence needs, coming up against a red hot Fremantle outfit. Essendon have conceded back to back scores of over 100 points, have conceded the ton in three of their last five outings.
Essednon recorded -67 disposals, -49 marks, -17 contested possessions and conceded a goal from 39.5% of St Kilda’s inside 50’s - a remarkable stat given how much the Saints have struggled to score this season.
Fremantle are the number one clearance team in the competition, while the Bombers rank 10th. With how badly Sam Draper has struggled in the ruck over the last three weeks, Sean Darcy could be giving his mids first supply with ease, which spells massive trouble for the Bombers.
Match Prediction: Although this is the first time that Essendon and Fremantle have played against each other at the MCG since 1999, the G has been a happy hunting ground for the Dockers. Their last trip to the home of football saw a 54 point win against Richmond in Round 8, and they have won four of their last six games at the MCG.
The same can’t be said for Essendon, who have one win, three losses and a draw at the G this season. The Bombers have completely lost their method and system over the last month and last week they looked completely void of confidence. Given the form Fremantle are in, the line being at only -6.5 is borderline insulting to the Dockers, who will win comfortably.
Fremantle -6.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
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Caleb Serong 30+ Disposals: Serong has picked up 32 and 36 disposals over the last two weeks after failing to record a 30 disposal game between Rounds 11 to 18. Despite the dry spell Serong is still averaging over 30 disposals per game this season, and has produced performances of 32 and 30 disposals in his last two games against the Dons.
Andrew Brayshaw 30+ Disposals: Brayshaw has put together an excellent month of football with games of 35, 23, 41 and 36 disposals in his last four games. Like Serong, Brayshaw has a great record against Essendon averaging 32 disposals across his last three games against the Bombers.
Josh Treacy 2+ Goals: The Big Cohuna has spearheaded Fremantle’s excellent form and was rewarded with a contract extension during the week. Treacy’s last eight games have produced returns of 3, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 2 and 3 goals. Treacy will be full of confidence coming up against a struggling Essendon defence.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at BoomBet
