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Essendon vs Carlton Predictions & Tips: AFL Round 13 2024

June 8th 2024, 3:38pm, By: Jack Tobin

Essendon vs Carlton Betting Tips

Traditional rivals Essendon and Carlton go head to head in a blockbuster clash on King’s Birthday eve. Both sides have had strong starts to 2024, sitting in 2nd and 5th places on the ladder, so this should be an exciting clash!

The Before You Bet team will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.

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2024 AFL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips

Essendon vs Carlton

Sunday 7:20pm AEST, June 9th, MCG

Carlton produced arguably its best win of the season in Round 12, dismantling Port Adelaide in the fourth quarter to pick up a 36 point victory at the Adelaide Oval. Captain Patrick Cripps led the final quarter charge, kicking 2 of the Blues eight goals.

Sam Walsh continued his stellar season picking up a game high 34 disposals along with 13 tackles and 8 clearances. Carlton’s win was built on territory dominance, recording +15 inside 50’s thanks to their pressure, which saw them record 15 more tackles than Port Adelaide despite recording more disposals.

Essendon tasted defeat for the first time since Round 4, as inaccurate goal kicking proved costly in an eleven point loss away from home against Gold Coast. The Bombers had 25 scoring shots to 21 but kicked 11.14 in what was a missed opportunity given they won the inside 50 count, clearances and contested possessions.

What is more of a concern for Essendon is an injury list that is growing substantially week by week. Mason Redman, Darcy Parish, Xavier Duursma and Ben Hobbs are all out through injury, while Todd Goldstein and Kyle Langford come into this game under an injury cloud.  

Carlton are the second highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 94 points per game in 2024. Carlton have scored over 100 points in four of their last seven games, and possess two of the top five goal kickers in the league in Charlie Curnow (36 goals) and Harry McKay (28).

Another big improvement for the Blues over the last month has been their work at the coalface, with Carlton now ranking number one in the AFL for contested possessions. With the likes of Cripps, Hewett and Kennedy the Blues have much bigger bodies than Essendon in the midfield, which should allow them to control the midfield battle.

If the Blues win the midfield battle and get to play the game in their half, it’s going to be a difficult task for Essendon’s back six to contain Carlton’s high octane forward line. 

Match Prediction: Carlton are starting to build into some high quality form with their injury list shortening, and they face the Bombers at the perfect time. Carlton come into this game on a ten day break which could prove to be a big advantage given Essendon have a much shorter turnaround coming into this clash.

Carlton have won three of their last four games against Essendon by an average margin of 14 points, and if the Blues produce the form they have over their last month where they’ve won three of their last four games they won’t have any issues against the Bombers. Carlton’s brutal contested brand will simply overwhelm and undermanned Essendon outfit.

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Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals: Since returning from injury in Round 5, Sam Walsh has been in scintillating form. Walsh has recorded 30+ disposals in seven of his eight games this season, and has an excellent record against Essendon. Walsh has produced performances of 35, 29 and 33 disposals in his last three games against the Bombers. 

Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: After a quiet three quarters, Carlton’s skipper turned up when it mattered to drag the Blues across the line in the final quarter last week. Cripps is averaging 27 disposals per game this season and will be full of confidence against an undersized Essendon midfield.

Nic Martin 25+ Disposals: Week in, week out Nic Martin continues to rack up the footy. In his first season at half back Martin is averaging 30 disposals per game, and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in eleven of his twelve games this season, with his only miss being a 24 disposal performance last week against the Suns. Martin recorded 30 disposals in Essendon’s win over Carlton last season.

Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals: Not many bigger certainties in the competition then Charlie Curnow 2+ goals. Curnow has kicked multiple goals in twelve out of his twelve games this season, and has kicked at least two goals in four consecutive games against Essendon. 

SGM Odds: $3.80 at BoomBet

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Jack Tobin has a Bachelor of Media and Communications Degree, majoring in Sports Media, and has been part of the Before You Bet writing staff since 2019.

Jack is a sports fanatic but is particularly keen on Cricket, AFL, Basketball, NFL and Soccer where he has a keen eye for spotting a winner or three. Jack is still waiting for Essendon to win a final in the AFL, while he also supports the Miami Heat in the NBA, Manchester United in the EPL and the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL.

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