Movistar Riders vs Winstrike
ESEA Advanced Season 35 Europe
Movistar Riders are entering this match on a seven-game winning streak, which includes wins over Cyber Legacy, ALTERNATE aTTaX, Apeks and LDLC. They have also won the ESL Masters CS:GO Season 8, One Tap League 2020 Cup 5 & 6 and finished runner-up at the Tap League 2020 Cup 4 and are holding a 61.5% win rate across the last three months, so it's fair to say Riders are in great form.
Like Movistar Riders, Winstrike won 61.5% of their games across the last three months but did not look as sharp in their recent outings. Winstrike have won only two games from last five against Izako Boars and Lilmix but had to admit defeat to Spirit, Nemiga and Gambit.
Winstrike have recently attended the IEM New York 2020 CIS where they locked in a disappointing ninth-10th place finish with only one win against ETHEREAL and losses against Gambit and Spirit. Nevertheless, Winstrike did not have realistic chances of winning that tournament, so they are likely not too saddened with their placement.
Movistar Riders are priced around 1.50 for this match, which in my book is a bit too low. Sure, Winstrike will have to play this match with a stand-in hooch instead of bondik, but I don't see that as a downgrade.
Winstrike tend to perform better on Dust2, Mirage and Vertigo and since Dust2 is most likely getting vetoed, there is a high chance we might see either Mirage or Vertigo which should give Winstrike a chance to win at least one map and keep the series close.
Lilmix vs Cyber Legacy
Cyber.Bet Golden League 2020
Lilmix are 3-2 from their last five games with wins against Real Betis, Giants and Cyber Legacy and losses against Nexus and an amateur stack flowskola. Despite their somewhat concerning record, Lilmix are still holding onto a 51.6% win rate across the last three months and have not long ago won ESEA Autumn Cash Cup 3 Europe, Omen by HP Open Season 3 and the Flashpoint 2 Open Qualifier 2.
Cyber Legacy are entering this match with a streak of three consecutive losses against LDLC, Lilmix and Movistar Riders. What is even more concerning, however, is that Cyber Legacy won only 27% of their games since September.
Cyber Legacy and Lilmix met just a couple of days ago during the Nine To Five 6 Dawn where Lilmix secured a 2-0 victory with 16-11 on Mirage and 22-20 on Dust2. Jonathan "b0denmaster" Bodenmalm was the man to watch that day and ended the series with 57 frags and 1.25 HLTV, which was only slightly better than Mikhail "tricky" Krutov who locked in 53 frags and 1.20 HLTV rating.
Lilmix are clearly in a much better shape than Cyber Legacy who I don't expect to put up much resistance on Tuesday. If Lilmix continue showing the same form they have for the past few weeks, they should win this bout without any problems.
Value: Limix -1.5 Maps ($3.25)
AGF vs Apeks
Cyber.Bet Golden League 2020
The last time we saw AGF meet with Apeks was way back in September in the Nine to Five 4 Dawn, where AGF reverse swept Apeks (2-1) with 12-16 on Train, 16-4 on Dust2 and 16-6 on Nuke.
Magnus "fr0slev" Frøslev had a phenomenal performance that day and ended the series with 66 frags and 1.33 HLTV rating, but even he could not match Ole "Marcelious" Kristian Langan who posted the best numbers on the server with 62 frags and 1.39 HLTV rating.
Looking at the betting odds, I don't think Apeks should be priced as such big favorites. They have won only 39.3% of their games across the last three months and even dropped the ball against the likes of SJ, Izako Boars, Espada and Wisla Krakow, which makes me very skeptical about their strength heading into this match.
Even though it's true that they now field jkaem (formerly of 100 Thieves), he has yet to show anything noteworthy and even if he steps up his game, I don't see how he will be able to carry his entire team. I expect to see another close match, but if I had to pick a side, AGF are a better choice.
Alt: AGF +4.5 Rounds ($1.83)