Matchday 36 in the EPL provides some blockbuster fixtures as Newcastle and Chelsea face off, as well as a top of the table clash between Liverpool and Arsenal! Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets of the weekend below!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 36 Preview & Betting Tips
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Vitality Stadium, Sunday 11th May, 2:30am AEST
It may not bring the notoriety of some of the blockbuster fixtures this weekend, but one of the most important clashes of Matchday 36 sees Bournemouth hosting Aston Villa. A 1-0 over Fulham has Villa in seventh place on the table, one point behind sixth placed Forest and three points behind fifth placed Chelsea. Villa’s hopes of playing in Europe next season are well and truly alive, but they come up against a Bournemouth side that have not lost in their last five games. The Cherries have had three draws and two wins, with their last game a 2-1 upset against Arsenal.
This game shapes as a battle of Bournemouth’s defence, against Aston Villa’s work in the front third. Unai Emery’s side have scored 14 goals in their last six games, while the Cherries are the equal fourth best defence in the Premier League, having only conceded 42 goals this season. With Bournemouth not in contention for the European positions that Aston Villa are, will they bring the same desperation the Villa wills? The Cherries home record of late hasn’t been amazing, with one win, one draw and four losses from their last six games at home. Villa on the other hand have won three of their last four games away from home.
Aston Villa have had the best of this matchup over the last two years, with two wins and two draws against Bournemouth since 2023. Aston Villa’s current form line reads vastly better than Bournemouth’s, with a 7-0-2 record from their last nine games, while Bournemouth has only won two of their last ten games. With what is at stake for Villa, you can count on Unai Emery’s side producing another brilliant attacking performance like they have so often over the last two months.
Aston Villa to Win
$2.60 (1 Unit)
Newcastle vs Chelsea
St James’ Park, Sunday 11th May, 9:00pm AEST
St James’ Park plays host to one of the biggest games of the season, as fourth placed Newcastle hosts fifth placed Chelsea. Both sides are on 63 points, both teams have a goal difference of 21, with Newcastle only above Chelsea thanks to having scored four more goals. Chelsea produced an excellent performance against the champions Liverpool, winning 3-1 and having more shots on goal, despite Liverpool recording 65% possession. Alexander Isak’s penalty in the 89th minute rescued a crucial point for Newcastle against Brighton, who couldn’t capitalise on their dominance in general play.
Despite the draw, you can’t look past the body of work that Eddie Howe’s side have produced over the last two months. Six wins, one loss, one draw, 20 goals scored and seven goals conceded. Newcastle are ranked 3rd in the Premier League for goals scored (66), and the Magpies also have the 8th ranked defence in the league (45 goals conceded). Chelsea also rank in the top 10 at both ends of the pitch, ranking 7th in goals for and 3rd for fewest goals against.
Although these sides have been genuine top four contenders, the reason they both haven’t been in the title race at all this season is their record against fellow top four sides. Newcastle have a 1-2-3 record from six games against the other top five sides, while Chelsea have 2-1-4 record against the other top five teams. There’s a lot of similarities between these two sides, and there will be some caginess given that both sides will be desperate not to lose this game. A lot of factors lend themselves to a draw, and that’s the way it’s shaping up to end at St James’ Park.
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Anfield, Monday 12th May, 1:30am AEST
A top two clash on Matchday 36 often would be viewed as an epic clash, however given the title has already been won by the Reds, Monday morning’s clash will be a little anticlimactic. Both clubs are coming off poor outings on Matchday 35, with Liverpool losing just their third game for the season in a 3-1 defeat against Chelsea. Arsenal lost to Bournemouth last weekend, and also had their Champions League campaign ended with a defeat against PSG on Thursday. The Gunners have only won one of their last five games in the Premier League, and have lost three straight games across all competitions.
The Reds have produced one of the most dominant seasons in the history of the Premier League. Arne Slot’s side are comfortably the best attacking team in the league with 81 goals, 14 more than the next best side. Liverpool are also the second-best defensive team in the league having conceded just 35 goals this season. They’ve been remarkably consistent in all phases of the game, and haven’t lost consecutive games in the league this season. After both of their losses in league matches this season, Liverpool have bounced back with a win, and are every chance repeating that dose against the Gunners.
Liverpool have had the better of this matchup in recent seasons, with a 6-3-2 record from their last eleven Premier League fixtures against Arsenal. The Gunners defence has been shaky of late, conceding two goals in each of their last two games against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, who aren’t quality attacking teams. Liverpool will be eager to bounce back after last week’s performance, while Arsenal will be at a significant disadvantage after playing in Paris on Thursday.
Liverpool to Win
$2.05 (2 Units)
