Full fixtures return this week and time is running out for teams to make a push for the Finals. A game between the 14th and 15th placed sides is hardly anything to get excited about but victory in this game means a lot to the winner. Any game offers NRL fans the opportunity to watch some quality rugby league, and most are hoping this will be an exciting contest. Regardless, Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the NRL action ahead with the hope of making it a profitable evening for you.
2024 NRL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
CommBank Stadium – Thursday 4th July – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Eels were defeated by the Knights on the road last week, giving up a 12-10 HT lead as they were outscored 34-26. Appearing strong early, they failed to maintain their momentum, conceding 4 second half tries, 3 of which came in the final 15 minutes. It was a poor second half effort, highlighting the shortcomings this team has experienced in 2024. This was reflected statistically too; with 52% of possession, they completed at just 72%, averaged just 8.1m per carry (allowed 9.2m), made fewer PCM’s and despite having the same amount of line break (7) as their opponents, failed to turn this into points. They were also poor defensively, missing 47 tackles. They now find themselves 7-points away from the Top 8 with time running out to change their form.
The Rabbitohs had the Bye last week, capturing their 4th straight win in Round 16 to take confidence into their break. An unconvincing 14-nil victory was important to their Finals hopes, with a lot still needed from them if they are to make a genuine run towards the Top 8. They were better with the ball in that match, completing at 82% while having a 53% share of possession. Their forwards set a strong platform with 9.9m per carry and 778 PCM’s; this created 4 line breaks. Their defence was strong too. While the Sea Eagles were down on first-string players, the Rabbitohs still missed just 22 tackles and allowed 1 line break. The challenge for them is to maintain this standard with their returning stars capable of assisting with this.
Match Prediction
The Rabbitohs were victorious back in Round 12 42-26, their first victory on their current 4-game winning streak. That night, they outplayed the Eels in all areas, but it is a vastly different team which takes the field for them here. While Souths were also missing some quality, the inclusion of Gutherson and Moses adds a much-needed edge in this game.
The odds have the Rabbitohs as favourites ($2.20 vs $1.67); this is probably an accurate reflection of where each team is at and considering the Eels couldn’t defeat their opponents last week when opportunities were presented to them, they will again struggle here. Nevertheless, the Rabbitohs are afforded more respect in betting markets than they deserve. They have been poor this season in several areas and can thank opportune timing for some of their victories in recent weeks. If they are not consistent and the Eels ‘turn up’ to play, they will be caught out.
The fact that the line sits at 2.5 points indicates how tight this game should be. This is supported by the 2024 season averages; with both teams averaging 20ppg in attack, they are close in defence with the Eels conceding 29ppg vs the Rabbitohs 28ppg. Even though the Rabbitohs have won 8 of their past 9 against the Eels, including their past 3 at this ground (overall record – Eels 62% vs Rabbitohs 43%), it is hard to invest on them with any confidence. More is needed from them this season; consistency still evades them, and they are unpredictable.
Therefore, the preferred selection is to invest on this game being a high scoring contest. It has already been proven once this season when these sides have met, and it is well supported by their season averages. Considering 3 of the past 5 have also tallied 50+ total points (average of 48ppg), this is the ideal selection. For the sake of making a Head-to-Head call, the Eels have a slight advantage, but it is recommended to avoid such markets altogether.
Total Points Over 50.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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The players which get their hands on the ball most are Mitchell and Walker. Mitchell leads the Rabbitohs for tries scored this season with 7. Johnston is second on 4 and after missing several games due to injury, he is beginning to regain his spark on the edge.
Either Team by 12 points or less
Mitchell, Johnston and Walker to Score
QuestBet SGM Odds: $23 at QuestBet (0.5 Units)
