The battle of the west closes out Friday Night Football, as the Panthers head to CommBank Stadium to take on the Eels. Parramatta are coming off an impressive win last week and will take immense pleasure in scuppering the Panthers’ chances at another Minor Premiership with a victory this weekend. Ben Bridge provides a full preview and betting tips for the game below!
2024 NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers
CommBank Stadium, Friday 9th August, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Eels snapped a six-game losing streak last week, dominating a Warriors outfit that appear to be calling it for season 2024. The game was back and forth early, before the Eels scored three tries in an 18-minute period in the first half, to lead 18-4 at halftime, before scoring two more quick tries in the middle of the second half to put the result beyond doubt, eventually winning 30-20. Statistically, the Warriors probably should have won the game, completing at a higher percentage, running for more metres, missing less tackles and conceding five fewer penalties, so it’s hard to get too carried away as an Eels fan, however Clint Gutherson deserves plenty of the praise, scoring a try, setting up another, and running for 225 metres.
As for the Panthers, they struggled to get by the Knights at home, eventually winning 22-14 after yet another clutch display from Nathan Cleary. The Panthers didn’t look anywhere near their best, and the Knights realistically had their chances to pull off the massive upset. I don’t believe this result was indicative of the Panthers’ form and expect them to be far more like the Panthers we are used to this weekend against their big western Sydney rivals.
Match Preview
Despite all the Panthers’ success over the past five seasons, the Eels have maintained an ability to play their rivals close, winning four of the past eight games between the teams. Earlier this season in round 2, the Panthers hosted the Eels at BlueBet Stadium, eventually winning 26-18 as a 7.5-point favourite. The Eels led 18-16 at halftime, with the Panthers digging in defensively in the second half, refusing to concede another point. The total closed a measly 35.5, with the over never really in doubt. Both sides were close to full strength in that game, but both will be missing key players this weekend.
Speaking of this weekend, the Panthers opened massive 16.5-point road favourites for this clash, and whilst they still sit as 16.5-point favourites at most books, the Eels are now heavily juiced, with the number looking to come down to 15.5. I make the Panthers a 15-point favourite, so agree with the slight move towards the Eels from a number’s perspective, with my subjective opinion leaning towards the Eels being solid value here. As I’ve mentioned previously, the Eels are always up for this contest, and they haven’t lost to the Panthers at this ground since 2019. 16 is a lot of points, and with the Panthers surely having one eye on next weekend’s massive clash with the Storm, I like the Eels to keep this closer than the line suggests.
As for the total, it opened 48.5, where it remains. My Panthers’ totals are always on the low side; however, the Eels have been an overs team all year. My fair is 43.5, so I would definitely lean towards an under, and will probably bet it myself, but given scores are up across the league I won’t be making this an official play.
So, I’ll be leaning into the Eels keeping this one closer than the market suggests. Whilst the +16.5 on the Eels entices, I’m going to go with some juicier odds here and take this game to fall within two converted tries, with an either team by 1-12 leg.
Either Teams by 1-12
$2.40 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
B Talagi (1+ try) – If the rumours are to be believes, Talagi will be off to the Panthers next season, and what better way to announce himself to his new teammates, than with a try.
B To’o (1+ try) – To’o has changed to the right side after some reshuffling in the three-quarter line for the Panthers, and running off Nathan Cleary is going to prove prosperous for the Panthers’ winger towards the back end of this season. Expect the powerhouse to cross at least once.
Eels (+16.5) – As above, I expect this to be tighter than the spread suggests.
SGM Odds: $8.94 at Neds
