The first game on Sunday afternoon has the Eels facing the Dragons for the first time in over a year. Last meeting back in April 2022, each team is a vastly different one from the last time these sides met. The Eels are currently sitting outside the Top 8 and need winning performances to keep their Finals hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Dragons are playing for pride and will want to build momentum ahead of their 2024 preseason. It’s a great way to start an afternoon of exciting NRL action and BeforeYouBet is here to analyse the match.
NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
CommBank Stadium, Sunday 6th August, 2pm (AEST)
The Eels headed south to face the Storm but failed to bounce back from a poor loss the week before, comprehensively beaten 46-16. Despite scoring inside 5 minutes, it was one-way traffic for majority of the match; the Storm led 24-10 at HT and didn’t ease the pressure in the second half. While outplayed, the effort areas for the Eels were poor; they completed at 74%, trailed in every attacking area, allowed 11 line breaks and missed 43 tackles. The loss also increases the chance that they will miss out on featuring in the Finals.
The Dragons are already resigned to this but were better than they have been in previous weeks in their 24-18 loss to the Sea Eagles in Wollongong. Good in their attacking effort areas (61% possession, 81% completion rate & 9.3m per carry), they allowed too many opportunities to their opponents (7 line breaks). They couldn’t stop their momentum when it was needed. A controversial 63rd minute sin bin to one of their forwards didn’t help their cause either. With pride on the line, similar performances should ensure they take some positive momentum into their 2024 campaign.
The Eels are overwhelming favourites for this game ($1.17 vs $5), but recent form and previous history suggests it should be closer. After a slow start to the season, the Eels fought hard to get back on track, but the past 4 games have seen a decline defensively. They have conceded 24+ points in each match, at an average of 35.3ppg. In the same period, albeit against different quality opponents, the Dragons have averaged 31.5ppg but recent defensive efforts have been improved. Statistically over the season, the Eels have an edge; they score 25ppg in attack and concede 22ppg in defence compared with the Dragons 20ppg in attack and 28ppg in defence.
Despite a superior record at this ground (63% vs 27%), the Eels have lost 2 out of the past 3 home games against the Dragons. The Eels should still have too much quality for their opponents, but it will not be as easy as the odds are suggesting. The Dragons have a unique ability to drag some teams down to their level and make a contest of the match. This appears as though it will be one of those matches. As desperate as the Eels will be for a victory, the Dragons will be out to make a contest of this match. With the Eels still missing key players (despite the return of Dylan Brown), it appears as though the Dragons could find an edge in the middle. With that in mind, the line (15.5) is worth taking on.
Dragons +15.5
$1.95 (1 Unit)
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Eels to Win – The Eels are the preferred H2H selection and add slightly more value to this investment. They need to win, and the pressure is on them to perform.
Total Points Under 47.5 – The recent lack of defensive resolve suggests this game could be a high scoring match but the recent struggles in attack of both sides should keep this total down.
Gutherson 1+ Try – Gutherson had a poor game last week and will want to increase his involvement to put his team in a position to capture victory.
SGM Odds: $5 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
