Sky Racing Tattersall's Club Tiara 1400m - Group 1
The final Group 1 race in the Australian racing season is the Tatts Tiara for the fillies and mares over 1400m at Eagle Farm this weekend.
Despite reasonably clear weather the Eagle Farm track is still rated as a Soft 6 and with a bit of drizzle around on Friday it looks as if it will stay that way for the races on Saturday. We saw the track deteriorate two weeks ago and the inside of the track was off so drawing wide may not be disadvantageous.
Three-year-old fillies have a good record in this race, with Blueberry Hill the only three-year-old in this years field, while the past four winners have been last-start winners. Four of the last six winners have jumped from double digit barriers, which could be the place to be given the wet track.
Let's go through the field of 16:
AZKADELLIA: Very disappointing as favourite in the Stradbroke but she settled a long way back and struggled in the inferior part of the track on the inside. It wasn't a run that would inspire confidence here but she returns to her own sex and under weight-for-age conditions she looks very well placed if she's at her best.
DANISH TWIST: Has won four straight in the lead up to this, including a Group 3 at Scone and a Listed race at Randwick. Her win last start was very comfortable and while this is a big step up in grade, her form can't be any better coming in. Draws the inside gate so will need a good ride to get to better ground, but Bowman can certainly do that. Good chance.
PRECIOUS GEM: Group 1 winner under similar conditions to these two starts ago in Adelaide. Last start she was slow away and came from a long way back to finish midfield, and despite being beaten 7 lengths the run wasn't as bad as it may appear on paper. Not sure a wet track is her go but if she reproduces her run from two starts ago she is a leading chance.
CRADLE ME: Purton returns to ride her again here after piloting her to a good win over this track and distance last start. This is a step up in grade for sure, but she's racing in good form and at least has proven she can race well on the new surface at Eagle Farm. Will need a good ride from 13 but history has favoured the outside barriers. Won't want it much wetter than it currently is.
MISS COVER GIRL: Ran reasonably well to fight on and finish 4th in the QTC Cup behind Spill The Beans last start. Probably lacks to quality to match it with the first few and I'm not sure 1400m is ideal, despite winning previously over the distance.
JESSE BELLE: Ran well to finish 3rd at big odds behind Cradle Me last start and pulled up with a slow recovery and thumps, which makes the run look even better. Has a bit to do to turn the tables on Cradle Me but she goes well at the distance and has won on soft ground before. Roughie.
SULTRY FEELING: Put two Group 3 wins together to start the preparation but has failed in her two starts since then. Has had a 7 weeks break leading into this so will come in fresh and that could be the key to her producing a better run. Doesn't have a great record at the distance, however. Happy to pass.
PRESS REPORT: Ran 3rd to Danish Twist two starts back and then failed in Group 3 company last start. Only has one placing from 7 starts over 1400m and only three placings from 12 starts on wet tracks. No thanks.
SCARLET BILLOWS: Has been fairly ordinary recently. Finished 4th behind Blueberry Hill last start but does get a 3.5kg weight swing in her favour. Even so, it's hard to see her winning this on the back of her recent performances. It would be "Darren Weir" if she were to win though.
ECHO GAL: Came out of some strong form races to finish 3rd behind Blueberry Hill at Ipswich last start and gets a 1kg weight swing today. Gets the blinkers back on so from the inside draw she will be up in the first couple. Not sure she runs a strong 1400m though and on a wet track the distance may test her.
ARTSTRY: Consistent mare who doesn't often run poorly. Ran well to finish 2nd last start behind Cradle Me but is 1kg worse off at the weights so will find it difficult to turn around the margin. Gets the winkers back on but not convinced she is as good on wet tracks so looking to others as winning chances.
PALAZZO PUBBLICO: Recorded back to back wins two and three starts ago but could only manage a midfield finish in the June Stakes in Sydney last start. Steps up from 1100m to 1400m here and also faces a significant rise in grade so this will test her.
ONEMOREZETA: Racing very consistently with three runner up finishes followed by a 4th placing behind Cradle Me last start. Does meet Cradle Me a kilogram better at the weights but she was beaten 2.2L so I doubt that will be enough. I can see her running well but more of a place chance.
BEATNIKS: Good run behind Ghisoni in Group 3 company two starts back but could only manage a midfield finish behind Cradle Me over course and distance last start. Does have a good record over the distance and on wet tracks but is 2kg worse off at the weights so will have to improve.
BLUEBERRY HILL: Significant form turnaround when winning the Gai Waterhouse Classic at Ipswich last start. Is up in weight and grade but has a good record at the distance and is undefeated on wet tracks so that could bring her into calculations at decent odds.
I can really only see the top four as winning chances here, with Blueberry Hill possibly a roughie.
I have no doubt Azkadellia is the best horse in the race but I'm not very keen to jump in at the $2.50 price after what she dished up last start. I think the inferior part of the track had something to do with it but she was beaten a long way and I would rather be taking the better prices about some of the others.
I think the two to be on are Danish Twist and Cradle Me. Danish Twist is absolutely flying and her past couple of victories have been convincing. Her record over 1400m is phenomenal and her record on Soft tracks is also outstanding. Cradle Me is also in terrific form and if she reproduces her run from last start at the track and distance she will be hard to beat.
Precious Gem is another to consider on the back of her Group 1 win two starts back. She comes out of a strong form race and can't be dismissed.
Blueberry Hill the roughie as aforementioned.
1st DANISH TWIST
2nd CRADLE ME
4th BLUEBERRY HILL
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