The first NRL match on Friday night heads down to Wollongong with the Dragons hosting the Warriors. The visitors are the superior team but still only sit just 1 competition point ahead of the Dragons; perhaps 80 minutes of exciting rugby league will determine just how different these two sides are. With a lot of uncertainty around this fixture, Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the contest and help to find you a winner.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
WIN Stadium – Friday 19th April – 6pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dragons have a short turnaround following their 24-12 road victory over the Tigers last Sunday. Jumping to an early lead, they carried their momentum through to HT, holding a 16-6 lead. They were performing like the better team and took their chances in attack, while being strong in defence. This continued in the second half, as they closed out victory. They had a greater share of possession (51%) but an inferior completion rate (78%) and ran for fewer total metres and pcm’s. They also missed more tackles (31 vs 23) but still won the match. When it mattered, they were the better side.
The Warriors host the Sea Eagles, with the teams sharing the competition points following a 22-all draw. A 79thminute try and subsequent penalty goal sent the game into Golden Point, with neither team able to break to deadlock and win the match. It was a poor effort by the standards we have come to expect from the Warriors; they completed at 78%, had fewer pcm’s and missed 39 tackles. Their dominance was still evident with the ball, as they averaged 9.1m per carry and made over 2,200m. That result didn’t impact their standings in the NRL Power Rankings, they are still a capable team and will want to bounce back to winning form here.
Match Prediction
The Warriors head into this game as favourites ($2.65 vs $1.48) and are deserving of this tag. As pleasing as the Dragons result was last week, they should’ve executed better at different points; their margin of victory wasn’t as good as it could’ve been. The visitors are also carrying a relatively similar squad to last week, with the Dragons forced to shift Lomax back to his preferred position of centre. The Dragons will need to spark something; they have an inferior attacking (17ppg vs 22ppg) and defensive record (23ppg vs 15ppg) compared to the Warriors. The Warriors have also one the past 2 games between these sides.
The major factor working against the visitors is their record at this ground. They have won just twice in 13 attempts (15%) compared to the Dragons 61% record here. Still, there is something different about this Warriors team compared to previous years. They have already shown as much and, if they are to be believed, they will need to perform above expectations in this match.
The Dragons performance last week had positives, but this will be another test altogether. The Warriors defence will limit the Dragons opportunities and should mean that a comfortable margin of victory, covering the line, is able to be achieved.
Warriors -6.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
It is interesting to note that 4 out of the past 5 games have been decided by a 1-12 margin. Use this to your advantage. As for DWZ and RTS, both are key attacking weapons for the Warriors. Playing on opposite edges makes them an attacking threat and they can easily put the finishing touches on a strong attacking set.
Warriors 1-12
DWZ & RTS to Score
SGM Odds: $6 at Neds
