NRL action will start a day later this week following the men’s and women’s Origin fixtures. There is also one less game this week to accommodate 3 teams having the Bye. Regardless, fans will want to see some exciting rugby league. The Dragons host the Tigers in Wollongong to get the round underway. With both teams sitting outside the Top 8, a win here is important to each team. Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the fixture, breaking down what is ahead and hopefully finding you a winner to add to your enjoyment.
NRL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers
WIN Stadium – Friday 7th June – 8pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dragons were victorious last week over a weakened Panthers outfit, capturing a much-needed victory. While doubts remain about the quality of their opponent, fact is that they headed into that match as outsiders; few gave them a hope of performing well and that noise only grew louder as their trailed 10-nil at HT. A paint-stripping spray from coach Flanagan refocussed the team and they produced a superior second half display to score 22 unanswered points. The weight of possession (55%) and high completion rate (80%) swung momentum in their favour; they also made almost 400m more and had over 600 PCM’s compared to the Panthers 444. Their positive momentum with the ball meant they made 8 line breaks. They were a strong defensive side also, only missing 25 tackles for the match. Such a standard, albeit against weaker opposition, should be maintained if they want to push their way into the Top 8.
The Tigers had a week off following their Round 12 42-28 loss to the Cowboys in Townsville. The scoreline suggests that it was a one-sided contest, but the Tigers were brave at certain times, and while not ever close enough to win, will take confidence from that performance. They gave themselves every possible opportunity with an 81% completion rate, 9.1m per carry and 5 line breaks. They were let down defensively though, allowing 10 line breaks and missing 44 tackles. Such shortcomings highlight the inconsistencies plaguing their chances of success; it must improve should they want to climb higher on the competition ladder.
Match Prediction
It is expected that Hunt Su’A and Lomax will back up for the Dragons on Friday. If they do, it will swing momentum in their favour. Hunt is especially crucial to his team’s success. The Tigers are boosted by the return of Olam and Naden to the edges and will take a fresh team into this game with no players backing up from Origin. Players like Utoikamanu and Koroisau should head into this game with a point to prove after being overlooked for Wednesday’s match.
The Dragons are justified in their posting as favourites ($1.43 vs $2.85); they’ve won the past 3 at home against the Tigers and have an edge in attack (average 18ppg vs 15ppg). They will need to be better defensively though (25ppg vs 24ppg) where the Tigers will try to drag them into an ‘arm wrestle’ style of a match. The line (7.5) is set far too high when you consider the averages of each side. If you are planning on investing in this market, keep your options lower (see SGM).
The average winning margin in their past 5 games sits at 7.2 points, with just one win by a 13+ margin. Given the expected wet conditions in Wollongong, this could be similar outcome. The Dragons are the preferred choice but are to be avoided, as other option are more enticing. With the average total points sitting at 40 in their past 5 matches and a poor attack record of each, the total points on offer appears to be the ideal selection.
Total Points Under 45.5
$1.95 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
We’ve collaborated with exciting new bookmaker, QuestBet, to bring you a great value Same Game Multi for the opening game of each AFL & NRL round. Simply click this link or the image below to jump on our Dragons vs Tigers SGM.
As mentioned above, if you are having a stake in a line market, reduce your margin. The Dragons ability to convert tries should mean that they take the lead out to a converted try. As for the Try Scorers, both Sloan (8) and Olam (4) are leaders for their club this season. They have their own, unique attacking style which will trouble defensive lines each time they get their hands on the ball.
SGM Odds: $12 at QuestBet
Good luck to everyone following!
