With Origin now finished for 2023, normality returns to the NRL, and action begins on Thursday night with the Dragons hosting the Tigers. In a game which will likely decide the ‘wooden spoon’ for this season and could have many fans reaching for their remotes, this match does hold some significance for each club. Each are rebuilding and need to develop positive momentum to carry into their 2024 campaign.
Regardless of how exciting the NRL action is on the field, BeforeYouBet is here to take a comprehensive look at the contest and hopefully find a winner to increase your enjoyment.
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers
WIN Stadium, Thursday 20th July, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Dragons had the Bye in Round 20 but prior to that, were defeated by the Raiders 36-26 at home. Trailing 18-nil after 30 minutes and 24-6 at HT, the Dragons were poor and didn’t deserve to be a contender in the contest. An improved second half saw them fight back into the match but they left too large of a margin to overcome. This was all despite dominating possession (54%), having a higher completion rate (82%), making more total metres and post contact metres, while also having 9 line breaks. Their defence was slightly better too (34 vs 44 missed tackles). Better execution is needed from them in positive positions on the field if they are to be successful.
The Tigers extended their losing streak to 6 games, this time defeated by the Knights 34-18. Conceding 3 tries inside 12 minutes set the tone for what was ahead but they were kept in the contest courtesy of a poor conversion rate and only trailed 18-12 at HT. The fulltime result told a clearer picture though, as their 3-try effort was no match for the Knights 7. They were poor statistically too; they completed at just 63% with 45% possession, made almost 400m less than their opponents and allowed 10 line breaks to go with their 47 missed tackles. It is hardly a performance which generates positivity and will leave many wondering how this squad improves after another week of controversy.
Some big names return this week for the Dragons with none bigger than halfback Ben Hunt. While questions will linger about his commitment to this club long-term, his presence on the field should be a positive. The Dragons will also be out for revenge. The Tigers defeated them 18-16 in Round 10 (Magic Round) with the Dragons outplayed in that match by a better team. That win was one of 5 for the Tigers in the past 7 meetings between these two clubs. The ‘away’ trip shouldn’t worry the Tigers either; they have a superior record here (61% vs 67% - 4 wins in 6 attempts), with the Dragons victorious just once against them (as the home team) in the past 5 attempts.
The odds favour the Dragons though ($1.65 vs $2.25), with the absence of key players for the Tigers impacting their ability to compete for 80 minutes. A win isn’t beyond them, but the Dragons are in a far stronger position. This is supported by their ability to score points compared to their opponents; the Dragons average 21ppg compared to the Tigers 15ppg. The issue for the home team will be stopping their opponents attacking points. Their defensive record is slightly worse, averaging 29ppg vs the Tigers 27ppg. The fact that the Tigers are missing key attacking weapons will limit their effectiveness though and give the Dragons the greatest opportunity at covering the narrow line on offer.
Dragons -3.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
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Total Points Over 44.5 – The defensive performance of each team has seen them leak plenty of points already this season. This game should be no different.
Lomax 1+ Try – Lomax is an interesting option. He scored a double against the Raiders in their last outing and appears to be playing his best football. It is no coincidence that he has been told he isn’t wanted/needed at the club next year. As he plays for a contract, expect him to find his best again.
SGM Odds: $4.40 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
