The Bulldogs will be looking to build off of their impressive 2024 season, as they kick off their 2025 campaign heading to Kogarah to take on the Dragons. Whilst the Dogs look incredibly similar to last year after a stable off-season, the Dragons come in looking vastly different to this time last year. In what is an almost entirely new look spine, can the Dragons get off to a quick start in what would be a solid upset with a win here over the Bulldogs, or can the Doggies build off their impressive 2024 display? We bring you our thoughts and tips below!
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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium – Sydney
Date: Saturday, 8th March
Time: 5:30pm AEDT
Odds: Dragons ($2.35) vs Bulldogs ($1.60)
Line: Bulldogs -3.5
Points: 40.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Dragons come into this season as the favourites for the wooden spoon, which for a team that only finished two points outside the top 8 last season, must feel like a slap in the face. The Dragons can use this as motivation though, as the Raiders clearly have to kick of the season, with an upset of one of the favourites for the Premiership in round 1. With so many new faces, it may take some time for the new combinations to click, however with Head Coach Shane Flanagan at the helm, it is certain he will have his men fit and ready to go the full 80 minutes from round 1.
The Bulldogs conversely should be ready and raring to go, with their combinations unchanged from last season. They will be looking to build off a great 2024, where they finished in 6th position on the ladder, before going down narrowly in week 1 of the finals. They come in as the 6th favourite to win the competition and are odds on to make the finals again this year.
The Dragons and Bulldogs met twice last year, and it was all Canterbury in both those games. In round 12, the Bulldogs hosted the Dragons at Accor Stadium, closing 3.5-point home favourites. Despite trailing 12-6 at halftime, the Bulldogs powered home in the second 40, winning 44-12, scoring 7 unanswered second half tries.
In round 23 the teams met again at Kogarah, as the Bulldogs closed 2.5-point road favourites. The Bulldogs were the far superior team throughout, eventually winning 28-10.
The Bulldogs opened 5.5-point favourites for this round 1 matchup, with a total of 39.5. Dragons money has hit the market, as the Bulldogs now sit as 3.5-point road favourites. I make the Bulldogs a 6-point favourite on the road and do see some good value here in the away team. The Bulldogs’ defence should be able to handle the Dragons this early in the season, as their new look spine takes time to gel. The Bulldogs defence was top 3 by most metrics last season, in the mix with the two Grand Finalists, and they should be able to get the job done here convincingly over the Dragons.
Looking towards the total, and I make a fair total 40.5, which really doesn’t show any value with the total sitting at 39.5. I would lean towards the over, but this could easily be the lowest scoring game of the weekend, and I’ll steer clear for now.
Like all round 1 games, careful with your staking. There’s nowhere near enough data to be overly confident this early, so keep your powder dry for this week at least.
Bulldogs -3.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Bulldogs ML – As above, the Bulldogs should get the chocolates in round 1.
Leg 2: Bulldogs (team total) over 19.5 – I predict 24 points for the Bulldogs in this matchup, and the 19.5 gives us a bit of leeway with a possible missed conversion. The weather isn’t great, but the Dogs have no excuse not to come out of the gate hot this season.
Leg 3: Stephen Crichton (1+ try) – Crichton confirmed last season that his play at the Panthers wasn’t just because of the system, and he is in fact one of the elite centres in the game. Crichton can score a try from anywhere, and the Bulldogs’’ captain will look to lead from the front in round 1.
SGM Odds: $4.20 at BoomBet
