Sky Racing Tattersall's Mile Handicap 1600m - Listed
We are approaching the calm before the storm on the Australian racing calendar, with the Winter Carnival all but over and the Spring Carnival just around the corner.
One of the few blacktype races in the country this weekend comes from Doomben in Brisbane, where a field of 11 is set to line up over the 1600m in the Sky Racing Tatts Mile.
The market suggests this is an open race, with six runners under double figures, headed by Flamboyer who is the $4.20 favourite.
The track is currently a Soft 5 but with no rain predicted we could see that upgraded to the Good range. Let's go through each runner:
STEEL ZIP: Produced a good effort in the Ramornie Handicap last start at Grafton but there's two problems here - he goes up 3.5kg to 59kg and jumps from 1200m to 1600m (a distance where he has won once from 8 attempts). Can run well but can't see him winning.
JETSET LAD: Drops back significantly in grade from Group 2 to Listed company but he's been getting hammered in the stronger races and he would need to improve to feature here. Has been freshened up and will need to jump well. Prefer others.
FLAMBOYER: Comes up favourite on the back of consecutive wins, the last of which was in a decent race. I didn't fancy him that day but he won convincingly and if he performs up to that he can win again. Only concern is the mile (he has failed at two previous attempts) but from barrier 1 he should go straight to the front and be hard to run down.
AKAVAROUN: Money came for him last start and he finally showed some form. Finished 2nd after travelling wide and making a move to go forward and lead. Steps slightly back up in grade here and drops 3kg down to 56kg. Not a great record at 1600m but if he produces his best form he wins this.
HARADA BAY: Ran over the top of Akavaroun last start to make it two wins in his past three starts. Holds a fantastic record at this track and distance with two wins and five placings from 8 starts. Will go back from the wide gate and should be running home strongly.
FELTRE: Improved last start to record a decent win but he's probably looking for a Soft track to show his best. If the track stays Soft he is an each way chance but the drop back from 1800m to 1600m isn't ideal and nor is Doomben compared to Eagle Farm where he won last time.
LAUTERBRUNNEN: Finished 3rd behind Harada Bay and Akavaroun last start but might need to improve to turn the tables despite the very slight weight swing. He has mixed form at Doomben but his last two efforts here have been sound, so as long as the track is firm he has each way claims.
ADORABEEL: Going horribly. None from four at this track and finished last, beaten 9L, last start here behind Harada Bay and co. Looks up against it.
HI SON: Not far away recently and has got five wins at Doomben but he won't get an easy lead here with Flamboyer in the race and the weight swing on Harada Bay is not in his favour so he will struggle to turn the tables.
BRETTAN: Consecutive runner up finishes in lower grade and the step up to 1600m looks a good option now. Has a decent record at the mile and has won previously over this track and distance. Drawn to get a good run and could run into a place.
PERFECT PUNCH: Came from the country to tackle city grade last start and failed behind Harada Bay after having a great run in transit. Blinkers go back on here but he would need to improve significantly to feature in this.
Summary
Harada Bay beat plenty of these last time out and isn't really a whole lot worse off at the weights. He's in good form and is a strong winning chance once again. He beat home Akavaroun who didn't have any favours in the run, so with a better run here he can possibly turn the tables. Lauderbrunnen was back in third that day and can feature in the finish again here. But the one I want to be on is Flamboyer. His last two wins have been pretty impressive, and while he won't get it all his own way in the lead today, he might just be too good once again.
1st FLAMBOYER
2nd AKAVAROUN
3rd HARADA BAY
4th LAUDERBRUNNEN
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