Sunday afternoon football kicks off at Suncorp Stadium, as the Warriors play for pride, up against a Dolphins team that is trying to make the finals for the first time. With both teams’ season petering out, a loss here for the Dolphins could prove catastrophic for their finals’ hopes. Can the Warriors finish this poor season on a high?Catch our thoughts and best bets below!
2024 NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 11th August, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dolphins are coming off their 3rd straight loss, going down 34-30 to the Roosters over in Perth last weekend. The Dolphins were the better side for the opening 45 minutes, leading 26-20, but they weren’t able to go on and take the victory. There are definite concerns that the Dolphins season is starting to go the way of their 2023 campaign, and what once looked like a certain top 8 berth, now seems less than a 50/50 prospect. Their best performer last weekend was makeshift hooker Max Plath, who set up a try and scored his own, whilst making 36 tackles. It's amazing the job he has done at hooker in the absence of Jeremy Marshall-King, and they will need him to be good again this week.
The Warriors are off an extremely disappointing home loss last weekend, going down 30-20 to the Eels. The scoreline certainly flattered the Warriors, who trailed 30-4 with 9 minutes remaining, before they scored three late tries. It was a concerning loss, and one that sealed the Warriors fate as a team that will miss the finals in season 2024.
Match Preview
This will be the second meeting of the clubs this season, after the Warriors snuck by the Dolphins in round 12 at home, winning 24-20. The Dolphins closed 4.5-point road favourites, which showed how positively the Dolphins were being viewed at the midway point of the season. The stats were close, and so the game proved to be, with the Warriors winning the penalty count 5-0, in a stat that proved to be especially important for the home side. The total closed 46.5, with the under hitting in a solid look.
Prior to last weekend’s results, the Dolphins opened 3.5-point home favourites, however after the Warriors meek display last week, Dolphins money has flooded the market. The Dolphins got out to 8.5-point favourites, with resistance met at this number, to where the Dolphins now sit as 7.5-point home favourites. That’s a massive move this late in the season and given there aren’t any major injury concerns for the Warriors, the market has moved too far here in my opinion. The Dolphins have only covered 3 of 8 as favourites, whilst the Warriors have covered 6 of 7 games as underdogs. I see solid value here with the Wahs.
As for the total, it opened 50.5 and has been bet up to 52.5. The Warriors have been a heavy unders team, however on a Sunday afternoon at Suncorp Stadium, I don’t have the guts to pull the trigger on the under here. I make a fair total 48.5, so there is slight value, but I much prefer the spread in this one.
Warriors +8.5
$1.80 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – The Flying Perm has started to look more dangerous the past few weeks, and with 11 tries in 18 games, is a great shot of scoring one here for the Warriors.
J Bostock (1+ try) – Bostock has been a revelation this season, with 14 tries in 18 games. Attacking the weaker right edge of the Warriors, Bostock anytime try is a great leg.
Either team (1-12) margin – The Dolphins have had 1-12 margin finishes in 13 of their 19 games this season, whilst the Warriors have 12 from their 19. These teams are prone to tight finishes, and I expect a tight game here.
SGM Odds: $5.37 at Neds
