A reduced round of NRL fixtures begins on Thursday with the Dolphins hosting the Rabbitohs. Even with key players missing for both teams, this game promises to be an exciting clash. Each side has their own motivation ahead of this game; for anyone, two competition points are vital, especially with the Finals on the horizon. Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the action ahead with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
2024 NRL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Kayo Stadium – Thursday 11th July – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Dolphins had a week off last week to lament their Round 17 loss to the Dragons. Failing to again win in Sydney, they competed strongly in the first half. They were the only team to score a try and had a narrow 6-2 lead at HT. Unfortunately, they were outplayed in the second half, conceding 5 tries and failing to build on their tally. They were inferior in most areas and were outplayed by an opponent which appeared to have a greater desire for victory. With a 47% share of possession and 72% completion rate, it was always going to be difficult. Their issues were further compounded as they averaged just 7.9m per carry, had just 2 line breaks, made significantly fewer PCM’s, and missed 48 tackles. It was a stark contrast to what this team has produced in other matches this season.
The Rabbitohs had no such issues in their 32-16 victory over the Eels last week. They were strong in making it 5 consecutive victories, dominating the first half and leading 16-4 at HT. They continued to build on that lead in the second half, with an evident difference in class between the two sides. Even with a 49% share of possession, they had a slightly better completion rate (77%) and averaged 9.1m per carry. Interestingly, they made fewer total metres and fewer PCM’s; however, their spark in attack was obvious with 7 line breaks creating plenty of opportunities. They also improved their defence dramatically, missing just 22 tackles over 80 minutes. They still want to feature in the Finals and must continue to win matches to overcome their horrible start to the season.
Match Prediction
Both sides have the omission of key players to face ahead of this contest. The loss of Mitchell and Murray for the Rabbitohs is arguably larger than that of Tabuai-Fidow, Kaufusi and Marshall-King for the Dolphins. That is not to discredit the key role they have played for their side this year. Each still had capable players to fill the void. Unfortunately for the visitors, it appears as though they will have a tougher job of covering player absences. The Dolphins still have Pangai Jnr, O’Sullivan, Fuller, and Bostock to call upon. All have played well this season at different points.
The Dolphins have been listed as favourites for this game ($1.65 vs $2.25) as their home ground advantage (60% vs Rabbitohs who have never played here) will also provide them with an edge. They also have a superior attacking record (24ppg vs 21ppg) and defensive record (22ppg vs 27ppg) compared to their opponents.
The Rabbitohs will take confidence into this game, but you won’t know until early just how important that will be for Walker, Cook and Wighton. There is every chance that they could ensure that the result is not decided until the dying stages of this contest. The Dolphins can often struggle to completely shut teams out of contests too; 5 of their 8 victories have come by 12 points or less. Use this to your advantage but keep your stake low; the Rabbitohs could cause an upset if the Dolphins slide in performance continues.
Dolphins to Win
$1.65 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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As stated above, the Dolphins have a history of tight matches in 2024; if the Rabbitohs do cause an upset, it will be unlikely to be by a large margin. Bostock returns to the wing and will want to regain form; he is the leading try scorer for the Dolphins this season (11). Farnworth has been damaging recently and the questionable defence from the Rabbitohs outside backs will give him numerous opportunities to score. Johnston will be benefit most from sweeping movements to the Rabbitohs left edge. It relies on Walker and Wighton execution well but if they do, he is the man to finish with the ball over the line.
Either Team By 12 points
Bostock, Farnworth & Johnston to Score
QuestBet SGM Odds: $14 at QuestBet (0.5 Units)
