Super Saturday in the NRL continues in Townsville, as the Tigers head north in the hopes of snapping a worrying trend of poor form heading into their round 12 bye last week. It won’t be easy, as they take on a Cowboys outfit that has looked every bit the top 8 side this season. Can the worthy favourites get the two points, or will the Tigers bounce back after the loss of Lachlan Galvin during the week?
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Ladbrokes via this link!
Cowboys vs Tigers Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 13
Is Purdue the Answer at Five Eighth for the Cowboys?
The Cowboys come into their round 13 matchup off of the bye, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the team from Townsville. We last saw the Cowboys in round 12, where they took on the Sea Eagles at home. Coach Todd Payten made a significant change after the Cowboys had gone three weeks without a victory, moving Jaxon Purdue from centre to five eighth. It didn’t work, as the Sea Eagles dominated with seven-line breaks to two, as they recorded the big road victory, 24-6. Payten has stuck with Purdue at five eighth, and he has a great chance against one of the poorer defences in the NRL this week, to prove he belongs.
Can the Tigers Recover From the Loss of Galvin?
The Tigers are also off the bye, as they look to snap a two-game skid that has dropped them from the top 8, down to 12th. It’s been a long bye week for the team, with young superstar Lachlan Galvin transferring with immediate effect to the top of the table Bulldogs. With Latu Fainu out injured, the Tigers have been forced to name Heath Mason at five eighth, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adam Doueihi moved to pivot. The Tigers were last seen in their round 11 loss to the Rabbitohs. The Tigers were by far the better team statistically; however, they couldn’t get the job done, going down 22-12.
Cowboys vs Tigers Recent History
The Cowboys and Tigers met twice last season, with the first meeting coming at this very ground in round 12. The Cowboys closed 15.5-point favourites, with a total of 50.5. In a back-and-forth battle between the teams, the Cowboys managed to win 42-28, with the Cowboys running for 2000 metres and breaking the line 10 times on the way to a seven tries to five win. They met 10 weeks later at Leichhardt Oval, where the Cowboys this time closed 10.5-point road favourites, with a total of 52.5. In another game where defence was optional, the Cowboys this time ran in eight tries to six, winning 48-30. Whilst the Tigers defence has improved this season, the Cowboys seem to have the answer.
Is the Tigers Season Over?
The Cowboys were listed as 8.5-point favourites on the look ahead line, before re-opening at 7.5. Cowboys money quickly came in and pushed it back to 8.5, which is basically the same as my number of 9.5. The big concern for betting Cowboys is the fact they have four players backing up from Origin (Dearden, Robson, Cotter, Nanai), with both Cotter and Nanai named to start in the back row for Queensland, indicating possible 80-minute performances. All have been named to back up, but there is a chance some will miss out, and until we have a definitive answer on who will be backing up, it’s hard to bet the side here, however a big Cowboys win is something I’m considering.
The total opened 48.5 and has been bet up slightly to 49.5. My fair total is 50.5, and I would lean to the over, but again we have to look at who is backing up for the Cowboys.
It’s hard to make a definitive play here, but I am concerned by what I’ve seen from the Tigers over the past month. There is a very real chance that their season is in free fall, and with the Cowboys playing at home, they could lap the Tigers here. I’ll take the Cowboys by 13+. Wait until final teams are named before deciding on staking here though.
Cowboys (13+)
$2.25 (1 Unit)
Cowboys vs Tigers Player Prop Bet: Drinkwater to Dominate
Our Best Player Prop: Scott Drinkwater 1+ Try
Drinkwater had one of his poorer performances in his last matchup, failing to deliver any of his trademark attacking stats against the Sea Eagles. This week, Drinkwater will bounce back in a big way, as he takes on a Tigers’ defence that leaked four tries to Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen just three weeks ago. Drinkwater only has two tries this season, expect that number to be bumped up after this game against the Tigers.
Scott Drinkwater (1+ Try)
$2.60 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys vs Tigers
Leg 1: Cowboys (-9.5) – As above, the Cowboys could put the Tigers to the sword here.
Leg 2: S Drinkwater (1+ try) – I love the Cowboys’ fullback in this game, load up.
Leg 3: J Purdue (1+ try) – Whilst Purdue looked a little out of his depth at five eighth two weeks ago, the bye came at a great time for his to work on his combinations with Dearden and Drinkwater. A tremendously gifted runner of the football, Purdue can score from anywhere on the field.
Same Game Multi Odds: $7.50 at Dabble
Cowboys vs Tigers Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 31st May
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Townsville
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 25 degrees
Odds: Cowboys ($1.42) vs Tigers ($2.95)
Line: Cowboys (-9.5)
Points: 49.5
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