What a way to finish NRL Round 20, with the surging Bulldogs looking for a top 4 spot heading to Townsville to take on the Cowboys, who have finally got themselves inside the top 8. With six teams all within one win of each other in the middle third of the ladder, these matches are crucial for these teams’ finishing positions. Can’t wait for this one!
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Sunday 21st July, 6:15pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Cowboys come into this massive round 20 clash off the bye, with their last game being a Golden Point loss to the Sea Eagles at home in round 19. In an up and down clash between two sides pushing for a finals berth, Daly Cherry-Evans proved the difference, with his 83rd minute field goal breaking the deadlock to launch the Sea Eagles to a 21-20 victory. The stats across the board were tight, with the main exception being the Cowboys missing a whopping 44 tackles, 23 more than Manly. In a massive positive for the club, Jason Taumalolo appears to be back to something near his form of yesteryear, running for 215 metres in the one-point loss.
The Bulldogs are also off the bye in round 20, however unlike the Cowboys in round 19, the Bulldogs managed to win in Golden Point against the Warriors, via an 88th minute field goal from Matt Burton. In a defensive back and forth battle, both teams struggled to score points, with just the 8 total line-breaks in a game where over 4000 total metres were made. Burton’s field goal got the two points for the Bulldogs, winning 13-12 in a result that looks a little worse after seeing how the Warriors playing on Friday night.
Match Preview
These two teams haven’t met since round 5 last year, in what was coincidentally ANOTHER Golden Point game. Matt Burton was once again the hero, slotting an 85th minute field goal to get the Bulldogs home 15-14. The Bulldogs were the better team, scoring three tries to two, and dominated field position, winning the game despite the sinbinning of Jayden Okunbor. The Cowboys closed 1.5-point favourites on the road, with the total closing 39.5, easily going under.
The Cowboys once again opened 1.5-point favourites for this clash, with early money coming in on the Bulldogs, moving the Cowboys to 0.5-point favourites. Since Origin, the Cowboys have confirmed that their Origin players will back up, and this has caused Cowboys money to flood the market, as they currently sit as 2.5/3.5-point favourites. I make this game close enough to a pick em’, so I do see value in the Bulldogs +2.5 in a game I can see being rather low scoring.
As for the total, it opened 45.5, with some overs money coming in as the number is now heavily juiced to over 45.5. As outlined above, the Bulldogs have proven to be particularly good at keeping totals low, averaging just 36.7 total points per game this season in their matches. The Cowboys have been the opposite, averaging 49 total points per game in their matches. I make a fair total for this game 41.5, so I do see some value in the under, however I can’t trust the Cowboys’ defence to hold the Bulldogs here.
We will take the Bulldogs here, and I’d suggest waiting until kick-off to make the bet, where you can possibly snatch a heavily juiced +4.5.
Bulldogs +3.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
