Well, the Aussies were pretty much humiliated in the 2nd Test and now attention turns to Old Trafford where Australia simply must pull something out of the hat to stay alive in this series. England have a 2-0 lead and, barring a major catastrophe, the urn should be staying on home soil.
Australia will make changes for the third Test, there’s no doubt about that. It’s highly likely that David Warner will come in, but as to who goes out, that’s a trickier one. It would be harsh on Usman Khawaja but he always seems the most easily replaced, while Phil Hughes and Chris Rogers would be in the firing line. Steve Smith is also under an injury cloud with a sore back and missed training during the week.
With James Pattinson out, I would like to see James Faulkner considered. His bowling is deceptively good, and he would add some much needed depth to the batting. Jackson Bird would also have to be closely considered, while Nathan Lyon should replace Ashton Agar who has not looked threatening with the ball.
The English side will remain unchanged unless Kevin Petersen fails to get over his injury, but with a large break between Tests, you’d think he’d be right to go.
An interesting twist in this 3rd Test match is the weather. There are likely to be some interruptions this time around, especially on Saturday where there is a strong chance of chance. This will give the Aussies some hope of at least pushing this match deep.
Quite simply, the Australians need to make some runs. It’s as simple as that. They are capable of it, but the English bowlers, particularly Graeme Swann and Jimmy Anderson, continue to apply enormous pressure, making the task extremely difficult.
Verdict
England to win at $1.83 on Betfair seems the play for this Test. Betfair have a promotion that will give a 50% bonus if the match ends on Day 3, a 25% bonus if the match ends on Day 4 and even a 10% bonus if it finishes on Day 5. So that would boost the odds assuming that England are the only team that can win early.
If you fancy the Aussies for an upset, or even a draw, then I suggest taking up the offer on Sportsbet. They are refunding losing bets up to $100 if the match finishes before Day 5. That’s a nice safety net if England do dominate again. You can get the Aussies at $5.10 and the draw at $3.50.
Side Bets
We had some good success with our side bets in the last Test, and some of the same markets are up for the 3rd Test, so we’ll taking advantage once again.
Unfortunately the line for Graeme Swann in the 1st innings has moved from 1.5 wickets to 2.5, after we nailed this in both of the first two matches. At that line, it’s sadly a no bet.
Again we’ll be taking Shane Watson to score 25 runs first at $2.10 against Chris Rogers at Luxbet. This bet was successful last match. While Watson’s dismissals have been worrying, I feel he’s a class act who is not far away from cracking a big score. Either way, as long as he doesn’t get out, his aggression is always going to get him to 25 before Rogers.
Also while we missed out last match, we’re going to again take the draw in number of run outs at $2.00 at Luxbet. The Aussies had a stupid run out which cost us last Test, and while it can always happen at any time, I think more often than not, there won’t be a run out for either side which makes this appealing.
I also don’t mind bets going against Phillip Hughes who is a player that I simply do not rate highly. You could have a go at Ian Bell to score more runs that Hughes in the match, but it’s short at $1.65 at Luxbet, while the 1st innings unders on Hughes at 25.5 at $1.87 at Luxbet might also be worth a nibble.
Futures
The good news is that our leading wicket taker bet of Graeme Swann has come in from $7.50 to now be a $2.40 favourite. You could lay now at Betfair and take a profit or ride him home. Either way, we’re in strong shape with Swann likely to continue to cause havoc.
Our leading run scorer bet of Shane Watson isn’t going so well. Ian Bell has dominated to come into a short-priced $2.06 favourite, so we’ll need a big score or two out of Watto.
The series score bet of 3-1 has drifted a little with the English dominance. It’s now at $6.60 with a 4-0 or 5-0 result the most likely outcome. We need the Aussies to lift if we’re going to pinch a Test somewhere along the way.
