Game: 2013 AFL 1st Preliminary Final - Hathorn Hawks Vs. Geelong Cats
When: Friday, September 20th at 7.50pm AEST - MCG
What a massive game for the 2013 first preliminary final! The epic matchup between the Geelong Cats and the Hawthorn Hawks may have been better suited for next week’s Grand Final, but there will be no complaints come Friday night when the action kicks off.
So, all the talk is around the ole ‘Kennett Curse’ that has apparently aided in Geelong beating the Hawks 11 times since Round 1 of 2009. Look, straight up, punters should not be superstitious. It’s just bad business. Whether it be always picking number 8 in a horse race even if your punting on a donkey, or whether it be nonsense like an AFL ‘curse’.
In saying that though, if Geelong do somehow beat the Hawks on Friday… Well we might just have to rethink superstition.
The Hawks are primed for this game. They have had a week off, their best 22 of 2013 are ready to go and they mean business - by bets 22, we mean Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin are back in the side, which is a huge factor. Coach Alistair Clarkson has two years left on his contract and realises he needs to win another flag or two in the next couple of years and they should. He means business, the players mean business and now it’s all about execution. This will be the biggest hurdle here against the Cats and then they should be lifting the trophy against either Fremantle or Sydney next Saturday.
The one thing on Geelong’s side is that they have nothing to lose. They know they are the underdogs here, especially considering they have lost big game specialists Paul Champman and Corey Enright as they won’t be putting the boots on. Over the last few years guys like Chapman and Enright have been so important to the Cats’ success in big games and this cannot be overlooked. The Cats will also be a bit sorer than the Hawks after playing a tough game against Port Adelaide last week – a game which Chapman was very important in. They will try their heart out, but ultimately they should not be able to overcame such a cherry ripe Hawks.
We will be happy to get on the Hawks at the line, which depending where you bet will be around -14.5 points.
Betinng Tip: Hawks at the line -14.5
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Alternative Option
Another option will be to utilize the latest Sportsbet AFL Finals money back special. This week Sportsbet are offering punters the chance to get their money back if your team loses by 18 points or less. With the thinking that the Hawks should win easily, you could take the $1.41 and have an 18 point buffer if things don’t go as planned. Or, alternatively, for those not sold on the Hawks and those who perhaps believe in curses, there is maybe value on Geelong at $3.00 – perhaps especially considering 9 of the last 11 encounters with the Hawks have been decided by 10 points or less.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
