Sunday afternoon football kicks off at Marvel Stadium as West Coast travel east to take on an in-form Collingwood outfit. Can the Eagles cause a huge upset? Or will the Pies continue their hot run of form?
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AFL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs West Coast
Sunday 1:00pm AEST, Sunday 12th May, Marvel Stadium
A piece of Nick Daicos brilliance gave Collingwood a thrilling six point win over Carlton in Round 8, which gave the Pies their fourth win from their last five games after starting the season 0-3.
The win has come at a cost though, with Collingwood facing a mountain of injuries. Brody Mihocek (hamstring), Jamie Elliott (back) and Beau McCreery (concussion) join Jordan De Goey (groin) and Tom Mitchell (appendix) on the injury list, while Lachie Schultz will miss this week after being suspended.
West Coast continued to show they aren’t the easy beats that they were in 2023, pushing Essendon right to the line in a six point loss at Optus Stadium last week.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, Elliot Yeo and Jake Waterman who have been the linchpins to West Coast’s revitalisation are out this week through a groin injury and concussion. Waterman had kicked 18 goals across the last four games and Yeo had averaged 26 disposals per game in the six games leading up to his injury.
Collingwood’s return to form over the last six weeks has been built on the back of major improvements in their defensive work. Between Rounds 1-3 Collingwood conceded an average score of 103 points per game, in the 5 games since Round 4 the Pies have conceded 77 points per game.
The Magpies are the number one tackling team in the competition, having won the tackle count in six of their eight games this season, including a mammoth +34 advantage last week against Carlton. If Collingwood bring their pressure game this week, the Eagles are going to struggle to move the ball.
Waterman’s absence is going to be a major issue for the Eagles, with the 26 year old in the midst of a breakout season. Coming into Round 9 Waterman is second in the Coleman Medal race, only one goal behind Charlie Curnow. Waterman has also spearheaded an incredibly efficient front half game for the Eagles in the last month.
West Coast converted 44.3% of their inside 50s into scores against Richmond, 52.1% against Fremantle and 42.9% against Gold Coast. Without Waterman and coming up against an elite Collingwood defence, it’s hard to see the Eagles front half game firing like it has over the last month.
Match Prediction: West Coast look to be beyond the 10 goal hidings that they’ve been consistently on the end of over the last two years, however it’s going to be a tough ask for them to keep this competitive without Yeo and Waterman. Collingwood are starting to hit their straps and despite their outs, their depth is vastly greater than the Eagles.
It’s difficult to see West Coast scoring enough to keep this close against the best pressure team in the competition, and even though it might not be a major margin that most would’ve expected at the start of the season between these two teams, the Pies will still cover the line in this clash. Collingwood have won two of their last three against West Coast by margins of 63 and 45 points respectively.
Collingwood -41.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Despite Collingwood's troubles early in the year, Nick Daicos has produced consistently elite performances week after week. Daicos is averaging 29.8 disposals per game this season and is coming off two 30+ disposals games across the last three weeks. Daicos has loved playing against the Eagles, recording 30 and 32 disposals in his two career games against West Coast.
Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals: Kelly has had an up and down season this year, but has shown a capacity to produce big numbers, averaging 24 disposals per game across his last six matches. Kelly recorded 29 disposals against Essendon with most coming in the second half after Elliot Yeo was subbed out. With no Yeo this week, Kelly will have plenty of opportunities to win the footy.
John Noble 20+ Disposals: After being left out of the finals series last year, John Noble has been on a mission in 2024. Often thought about as a player for 15+ disposal markets, Noble has elevated his ball winning capacity, averaging 21 disposals per game from the five full games he has played this season (after being the sub in Round 0).
