The annual King’s Birthday fixture at the MCG presents as season defining clashes for both Collingwood and Melbourne who have fallen out of the top eight. Who will bounce back and give themselves a chance to make their way into the top eight?
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2024 AFL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Melbourne
Monday 3:20pm AEST, June 10th, MCG
It’s a surprising tone heading into King’s Birthday compared to what we’ve been accustomed to from these sides over the past few years. Melbourne come into this game on the back of the biggest loss in the Simon Goodwin era, while an injury depleted Collingwood conceded five goals to none in the final quarter to be overrun by the Bulldogs.
Melbourne were completely embarrassed by Fremantle, conceding 141 points - the most they’ve conceded in a game since Round 23 2016. The Demons lost the disposal count by 78, marks by 46, contested possessions by 42, inside 50’s by 31 and clearances by 25. It was a performance akin to the dark age of the pre Paul Paul Roos error, not the club that has become a perennial top four team over the past few seasons.
Collingwood dominated proceedings early against the Western Bulldogs, jumping out to a 22 point lead early in the first quarter after kicking four of the first five goals of the match. However the Pies were left to lament a horror last quarter where they were outscored 5.1.30 to 0.1.1 in the 18 point defeat.
Nick Daicos tried to will his side to victory with 32 disposals and 2 goals, however the undermanned Pies couldn’t get it done and their injury list leaves major concerns for their aspirations of going back to back.
The Magpies are still without Scott Pendlebury, Jordan De Goey, Jamie Elliott, Tom Mitchell, Mason Cox and Dan McStay with none of those players likely to feature in the next three weeks. With Joe Richards also out and Will Hoskin-Elliott facing a fitness test, it leaves the Collingwood forward line incredibly undermanned.
Across the three losses from their last four games, Melbourne have lost the inside 50 count by over 20 twice and failed to win the contested possession count in any of those games. The Demons need a desperate lift from their star studded midfield, who are in terrible form.
Match Prediction: This is easily the toughest game of the round to pick, Melbourne have become hard to trust with what they’ve delivered over the past month, while Collingwood have been brave, the weight of injuries is eventually going to take its toll. One thing that those concepts have in common is that it points towards this being a low scoring game.
The Demons have lost three of their last four games and produced scores of 49, 70 and 76 and are averaging 79.5 points per game this season.Despite last week’s showing, Melbourne do have an excellent defence that is conceding only 76 points per game. 8 of Melbourne’s 12 games this season have produced a total points under 166, while Collingwood have produced scores of 78, 75 and 82 since their injury crisis began.
Total Points Under 166.5
$1.88 (1 Unit)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Nick Daicos is the most in form player in the competition at the moment, recording five consecutive games with more than 30 disposals. Daicos is averaging 31.8 disposals per game this season, and has recorded over 30 disposals in two of his three games against the Demons.
Christian Salem 25+ Disposals: It's been a tough month for Melbourne, however Christian Salem’s return from injury has been a bright spot. The 2021 premiership player has recorded 25, 32 and 27 disposals in his first three games back from injury.
Brayden Maynard 20+ Disposals: Brayden Maynard has loved playing on King’s Birthday producing performances of 25, 25 and 32 disposals across his last three games on King’s Birthday.
SGM Odds: $5.00 at BoomBet
