2024 AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Hawthorn
Sunday 5:10pm AEST, April 7th, Adelaide Oval
Collingwood finally broke through for their first victory of the season with a stirring 20 point win at the Gabba over Brisbane last week. The win was built on the back of their defence finally showing up for the first time in 2024. After conceding an average score of 103 points per game over their first three games, the Pies held a dangerous Brisbane forwardline to just 72 points at a ground where they’ve scored so heavily over the past five years.
Steele Sidebottom returns to the Collingwood side after being managed in Round 3, with Fin Macrae being dropped after recording just six disposals before being subbed off against the Lions.
A slow start and a poor finish bookmarked a frustrating Easter Monday defeat for Hawthorn, who went down by 36 points to Geelong. The Hawks conceded seven goals to one to fall 36 points down at quarter time, then kicked six of the next seven goals to get within a kick early in the third quarter. The Cats then responded with four goals in seven minutes to regain the ascendancy which they never gained back.
It’s been a tough week on the injury front for the Hawks who have lost Mitch Lewis (hamstring), Luke Breust (groin) and Nick Watson (ankle). Harry Morrison has been omitted, with Sam Butler, Max Ramsden, Finn Maginness and Seamus Mitchell being selected in the 23.
Maginness’s inclusion is no surprise given the tagging role he played on Nick Daicos when these teams met in 2023, with Maginness holding the young gun to just 5 disposals before he went off with an injury.
The Hawks inability to defend inside 50’s was their downbringing against the Cats, with Sam Mitchell’s side winning clearances (+14),contested possessions (+13), inside 50’s (+9) and marks (+8). It’s a remarkable statistical breakdown for a side that not only lost by six goals, but never led at any stage of the game. Geelong converted 31.5% of their inside 50’s into goals, while Hawthorn converted only 15.9% of their inside 50’s into goals.
Match Prediction: The losses of Lewis, Bruest and Watson badly hurt a Hawthorn outfit that ranks 16th in the competition in points for this season, averaging just 63 points per game. It’s difficult to see Hawthorn finding a way to turn around their attacking struggles with a forward line of Chol, Ginnivan, Hardwick, MacDonald, Ward and Nash. Especially coming up against a Collingwood side that got back to its defensive best last week, and will be desperate to keep their season alive.
The Hawks have an average losing margin of 38 points per game this season and have failed to score more than 83 points in a game in 2024. Those numbers simply don’t stack up against a side with the quality that Collingwood possesses. The Magpies love playing at the Adelaide Oval, having a 67.5% winning percentage at the venue, the best of any team in the competition, and have won eight straight at the Adelaide oval, including three wins there last season. Collingwood will be looking to head into the bye 2-3 with their finals hopes well and truly alive.
Collingwood -26.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals: D’Ambrosio has been a bright spark in a disappointing start for the Hawks, with the former Bomber averaging 22 disposals per game in 2024. D’Ambrosio has hit the 20 disposal mark in two of his three games, and with conditions looking dry in Adelaide on Sunday, he shouldn’t have any issues finding the footy.
Scott Pendlebury 20+ Disposals: The Collingwood veteran continues to produce year after year, and 2024 isn’t any different. Pendlebury is averaging 21 disposals per game, and has reached the 20 disposal mark in his last three games.
Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals: Despite Collingwood’s slow start to the season, Jamie Elliott has been on absolute fire kicking nine goals across his last three games, with returns of 2, 3 and 4 goals. Elliott has a good track record against the Hawks, having kicked 3 and 2 goals in his last two games against Hawthorn.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
